Energy Prospectus

https://youtu.be/sSYfmLjS4zA

US long bond rates will go up, imho
How to profit? Puts on long term bonds or go long TTT etf

Foreign country's are dumping and we need to issue and or rollover more debt.
Demand is going down and supply is going up

People are losing confidence in US dollar.. See above video
TY Team Biden

Be very careful, Fraser. Just because it makes total sense doesn't mean it will happen. I did this in 2007-2008 when similar events were occurring and I lost a bundle.

No guarantee's of course, just the way I am playing it

Who thought NG would go from 10 to 2? or crude 120 to 60 in last year? and - negative crude prices

Long rates are up again today 8 basis points to 4.46 %

TTT, an etf, that shorts long Treasury Bonds is up 3.69 today 4.3 %. Imagine that, in one day , you got the full year return of holding a treasury bill.

The government will just keep issuing debt, you know it, I know it.

And I just had another thought, the regional banks got whacked by owning too much long term bonds. the situation has gotten worse since then. I think its time to short regional banks.

How is another financial meltdown good for the markets, the economy, and the oil markets?

Just a question, I don't have the answers. But I'm hedging my energy exposure by shorting technology and a few specific shorts Tesla for one, QQQ another , SPY and thinking about NVDA

Risky business my friend. No question about the continued flow of Treasuries to fund the Ukraine killing fields and the Inflation Reduction Act (I mean climate control bill). The problem is foreign countries want to risk their reserves buying. Fed will likely pressure banks to buy (very bad for economy) and Fed to buy (printing money). Inflate our way out on the backs of working people. Also look for some brilliant government official to try to push for pensions to buy Treasuries. This can't end well, but when will it?

If you want the full effect of shorting technology, Fraser especially NVDA and AI, look no further than FNGD which is a 3X inverse ETN on FAANG.
It will be like going to Las Vegas without the food and show girls...

Nice tip, not to be confused with Diamonbank FANG

In finance, “FAANG” is an acronym that refers to the stocks of five prominent American technology companies: Meta (META) (formerly known as Facebook), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX); and Alphabet (GOOG) (formerly known as Google).

I like the long calls on BUD on Kid Rock being seen recently on camera drinking a Bud Lite at weekend concert.

That's a stretch, it will take more than that, like me drinking Bud Lite.

All

If you want a GREAT history lesson on Fed tightening and the corresponding fall-out, I'm providing a link here for a website that I ran across. The author is similar is depth to G&R, but hyper-focused on the role of money supply, interest rates, and credit. I know I just lost some of you with that last sentence but do yourself a favor and read it. It will give you a road map for what's coming, which is (Insert your favorite natural disaster synonym description here).

https://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2023_08_16.pdf

Here’s a recent interview of Bill Gross on the matter.
https://youtu.be/56-iiEnSjqU

His thesis is that Gold is the place to be to deal with a coming financial debacle.
Do you think oil - as a hard asset - hold up in a similar way?

There are a lot of commentators that feel the same way ie gold as a good store thru a turbulent financial time. When I have heard that question raised to commentators like this, their response is most times yes energy is another good store of value as are other commodities. As you are likely aware this website does not generally promote that a coming financial crisis is likely let alone imminent and there are a wide variety of opinions on the matter out there. Thus though I have serious concerns about the US and world economy going forward for the next 12 months + I am not promoting that as a given. This was posted in the interest of those like myself who wish to gain knowledge from many sources from which to form an opinion to be considered in crafting their personal portfolios of investments. That said i am heavily weighted to energy names in the Sweet 16, the income portfolio, and small cap but in the last 8 months have added significantly to my precious metals holdings. I also have more cash invested in short term treasuries than I have in my investment history.

TY Well said