Energy Prospectus

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.64 to $87.51/bbl, and Brent is up $0.71 to $90.63/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 6.0c to $2.639/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil heads for a weekly gain as low inventories and tight supplies remain in focus
October ’23 WTI gained 61c this morning to trade around $87.48/Bbl

Crude prices hit the highest this year as Saudi Arabia, and Russia extended output cuts to year-end, surpassing market expectations of an October-end
WTI and Brent reached highs of $88.08/Bbl and $91.15/Bbl respectively

Despite EIA reporting a 6.3 MMBbl storage draw, prices finished lower yesterday amid a strengthening dollar

Dallas Fed's Logan hints at another rate skip but not a halt, while NY Chief Williams suggests a potential hike based on incoming economic data
Concerns persist about China's macroeconomic landscape and its impact on crude demand despite this week’s gains

Meanwhile, NYMEX diesel futures are nearing a 6% weekly rise to trade around $3.30/Gal, the highest since January
Russia set to curb seaborne diesel exports by 25% in September (Bloomberg)
Russia to slash seaborne diesel exports by 25% from Black and Baltic Sea ports amid refinery maintenance and domestic fuel shortage
Diesel loadings are projected at 0.47 MMBbl/d this month, down from 0.60 MMBbl/d in August, marking the nation's lowest diesel exports since May’s spring maintenance season
Furthermore, the Russian Energy Ministry's push to control fuel prices led to the nation's refiners redirecting diesel domestically, leading to an 11-month low in fuel exports

OilPrice.com
"Whilst market sentiment was capped by weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data from China earlier this week, the fourth consecutive crude inventory draw in the United States combined with another week-on-week drop in gasoline stocks provided firm support for ICE Brent to stay around $90 per barrel. The extension of Saudi and Russian supply and export cuts until December 2023 didn’t materially change global balances, but it reiterates the bullish narrative of tight supply further down the road."

MY TAKE: Soon after U.S. commercial crude oil inventories go below 400 million barrels, the price of WTI will move steadily toward $100.

Last Look - Oil posts a $1.96 weekly gain as supplies tighten | Gas posts a weekly loss, down 16c, or 5.8%

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Oct 23) was up $0.64 on the day, to settle at $87.51
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Oct 23) was up $0.026 on the day, to settle at $2.605