Energy Prospectus

market sure don't like something in that report. looks like a good report to me--dan what does the mkt see that i don't?

sold my calls when this new madness started.

TGA is rapidly growing production. Looks good to me. I will update my forecast today. Very busy right now.

the webcast was short and sweet - encourage you to listen to some optimism and confidence.

check out the slides - showing more details and clearly seeing incredible opportunities.
http://www.trans-globe.com/investors/pr ... forweb.pdf

One slide is Roadmap to 40,000 and shows how they get there by 2016

Also have a very exciting exploration in Q3 called the Al-Azayem - could be huge, they are very interested in this prospect. No need to worry if that is a dud as they have so much on the plate already...

West Gharib is the foundation and will continue to hum along at 10K
Expect West Bakr to provide the next ramp up and that is all development
South Alamein is the next leg up with Boraq, which if it works will give the next 10K in production

Furthermore they are active bidders in areas surrounding their West Egypt assets. This will certainly provide more upside.

Negatives
- West Bakr has lower net backs due to the royalty set-up vs. West Gharib - one analyst wanted to know about this
- Q1 convertible debenture which caused -0.16 in EPS - also stated it may become material in the conference

I would sure like a basic lesson on this convertible debenture stuff - utterly clueless about that and look forward to Dan's analysis.

But for the overall story - it just gets better, forget about Yemen and hope for continued stability in Egypt.

This is a BIG TIME well! Wells like this are capable of 10,000+ bopd. Hang on tight as TGA is about to get very interesting. I am now expecting over 20,000 bopd by Q4. - Dan

South Mariut, Arab Republic of Egypt (SUBJECT TO CLOSING -60% working interest, TransGlobe operated)

On May 1, 2012 the Company announced it has entered into a Share Purchase Agreement to acquire companies which hold a 50% interest in the South Alamein PSC and hold an operated 60% working interest in the South Mariut PSC. It is expected that the corporate purchase could close in early June, subject to a waiver or non-exercise of a 30-day preferential right of purchase held by the remaining 40% working interest joint venture partner at South Mariut.

The South Mariut concession is located in the Western Desert of Egypt and is onshore along the Mediterranean coast line, adjacent to prolific offshore hydrocarbon fields and southwest of the city of Alexandria. The southern boundary of the South Mariut concession is approximately 20 kilometers north of the South Alamein concession. The current gross size of this exploration concession is approximately 3,350 square kilometers (approx. 828,000 acres). The South Mariut concession is in the first, three-year extension period which expires on April 5, 2013. A further two-year extension is available under the production sharing contract.

The South Mariut partners have acquired approximately 1,200 square kilometers of 3-D seismic over the original area and executed several studies supporting the prospectivity of the South Mariut concession area. The joint venture partners have approved (subject to rig availability) a $9.6 million exploration well (Al-Azayem -1) for 2012. The current operator has received all the necessary approvals and is in discussion with several contractors to supply a 2,000 horsepower drilling rig. The well is targeting several stacked horizons with four-way closures identified on 3-D seismic, with total depth expected at approximately 14,500 feet in the Jurassic formation. TransGlobe has internally estimated a combined 236 million barrels gross of undiscovered Petroleum Initially In Place ("PIIP") on a probabilistic P-mean basis for this prospect.

CS on Transglobe:

RESEARCH - TransGlobe Energy Corp. (TGL.TO) - Q1/12 Sees Inclusion of West Bakr Volumes - David Phung +

Quarterly Results: First quarter production and cash flow of 16,720 bbls/d and US$36 million, respectively, were both
slightly below our estimates of 16,750 bbls/d and US$39 million.

Production Records to Be Set: In the upcoming quarters we should see TransGlobe bring on additional production
additions from its capital program at West Bakr (~1,500 bbls/d) and first production in Q3/12 at East Ghazalat (800 -
1,200 bbls/d). With a ready inventory of development volumes at West Gharib that should steady the company's base
production, we expect to further production growth to set new corporate production records.

Inclusion of West Bakr Volumes: The inclusion of West Bakr production in Q1/12 has reduced the netbacks on a per
barrel basis due to the concession's relatively less favorable fiscal terms and a diminished cost pool that carried over
from the previous owner. As the company spends capital at West Bakr, we could see an improvement in netbacks as
cost pools are somewhat replenished. Furthermore, we could see TransGlobe renegotiate its sales terms for better
pricing. Overall, our previous revenue and cost structure assumptions appeared to be somewhat aggressive.

Revised Estimates: We have elected to maintain our production forecast but have made a number of changes,
including a reduction in realized sales price, higher royalties and G&A, amongst other items. We currently project cash
flow of US$166 million and US$239 million for 2012E and 2013E, respectively. Both estimates have been revised
downward by roughly 10%.

Valuation: We currently maintain our Neutral rating but have lowered our target price from C$16.00 to C$14.50 (based
on our risked NAV of $14.66).

Their cash flow estimates are very close to my forecast. Best thing about TGA is that cash flow is way over capital spending, giving them lots of dry powder.