Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

I am updating my forecast/valuation model for Vital based on the guidance that they provided below. My 2024 forecast assumes that all of the convertible equity used for the three Delaware Basin Acquisitions is converted to common stock in 2024. Now that I have 2024 guidance and know that Vital has a lot more running room in the Permian Basin, I am raising my valuation multiple to 3.5 X annualized operating cash flow per share.

After these deals close, VTLE will be a potential target for a much larger company. "The small fish eat the tiny fish and the large fish eat the small fish in this business."

Pro Forma 2024 Outlook

Vital Energy expects to realize operational synergies associated with a larger, consolidated Delaware position and the ability to optimize activity levels between the Midland and Delaware basins. The Company plans to prioritize returns and Free Cash Flow generation and expects to invest $100 - $125 million in the newly acquired assets in 2024, representing less than half of the previous operators’ activity levels.

Through the addition of recent hedges, the Company has significantly derisked its 2024 Free Cash Flow and leverage outlook, underpinning acquisition cash flows and returns. Vital Energy has hedged approximately 75% of expected 2024 pro forma oil volumes at an average price of approximately $75 per barrel WTI.

The following table provides a pro forma full-year 2024 outlook in comparison to the Company’s previously-released outlook.


Stand Alone VTLE FY-24E Pro Forma VTLE FY-24E
Total production (MBOE/d) 86.0 - 90.0 2024: 109.0 - 115.0
Oil production (MBO/d) 41.2 - 44.2 2024: 53.0 - 57.0
Incurred capital expenditures, excluding non-budgeted acquisitions ($ MM) $650 - $710 $750 - $850
Turn-in-lines (# of wells, gross) 70 - 75 87 - 92
Average rig count 3.0 4.0
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

First to update PT:
Gabriele Sorbara at Siebert Williams Shank & Co
5-Star rated analyst by TipRanks
Increases his price target by $14 to $96.00 and rates VTLE a BUY

IMO Gabriele is one of the best energy sector analysts.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

I listened to the replay of Vital conference call this morning. You should all listen to the replay, which is now on their website.

The three acquisitions announced yesterday combine to be a "Game Changer" for this company. Adding a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in the Permian Basin, which should draw a lot more attention from investors.
> Significant increase in free cash flow in 2024.
> The Company will run four operated drilling rigs, just one more than they were running. Keeping capex way below operating cash flow.
> Free cash flow in 2024 will be used to pay of lots off debt. < A good thing.
> By the end of 2024 the balance sheet will be in great shape, assuming just $80 WTI. My models all assume $90 WTI for 2024. If oil prices do move over $90, I expect Vital to add at least one more operated rig in the Delaware Basin.
> The increased scale of the Company (112,000 boepd with 55,000 bopd) should draw a lot more attention from the Wall Street Gang. Stifel was on the call, so I expect them to increase their price target, which was $122 before yesterday.
> Based on my forecast, Vital's operating cash flow will go over $1Billion in 2024. With just one month of additional production from the acquired assets, Q4 2023 operating cash flow should exceed $245 million.
> The increased scale also makes VTLE a prime takeover target, increasing my valuation multiple to 3.5 X operating CFPS.
> If their actual results and detailed guidance for 2024 confirm by forecast assumptions, a higher valuation multiplier will be justified.

My current valuation increases by $7 to $141. < I expect Vital's PV10 Net Asset Value to be close to this valuation at year end 2023.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

Hedges

For a company of this size, they must hedge their bets. Plus, the debt holders probably require it.
I know we'd all love for our upstream companies to get full benefit of higher oil & gas prices, but commodity price risk is real and smart management teams know that locking in positive cash flow is wise. When I worked at Hess we ALWAYS hedged enough future production on acquired assets to lock in payout within three years.
Go to Las Vegas if you want to gamble your retirement money.

Vital has ~73% of 2024 oil production hedged that leads to a realized oil price of ~$79/bbl in my model for 2024.
Vital has ~41% of 2024 natural gas production hedged that leads to a realized natural gas price of ~$2.59/mcf net of regional differentials in 2024, but before gathering and processing expenses. The low gas prices shown in my model are because this company reports realized natural gas prices net of gathering and processing expenses.
The Company's 2024 production mix is approximately 49% crude oil, 27% natural gas and 24% NGLs. So, if natural gas and NGL prices move higher, which I expect in 2024, then my stock valuation has some upside to my forecast in 2H 2024.

Additional Upside: When Vital starts paying a decent dividend, they will get a lot more investment from "Growth & Income" fund managers. Management knows this, which is why it was discussed on this mornings conference call.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Fraser921
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Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by Fraser921 »

141!!! I'd be happy with 40 % of that, I'm selling it at $ 56 if it ever gets there again.anyone want my shares worth 141 for 56?

Mgt appears more focused on keeping their jobs then taking care of shareholders
Fraser921
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Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by Fraser921 »

Paying a whopping 10.125 % on the 5 yr notes

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1528129/000110465923100512/tm2321383-1_424b5.htm
mitchl
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Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:24 pm

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by mitchl »

While the deal might have capped some shorter term momentum, I’m optimistic this is a step towards a longer term re-rate.
sl6886
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Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:57 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by sl6886 »

Early on with Earthstone, Dan touted the Mgmt. team as part of the valuation. In the Earthstone merger deal, the market sent ESTE (the seller) up and Permian Resources (PR - The buyer) sideways, so the market obviously thought highly of the deal. Here, good Mgmt. produced, in part, a good deal.

For the Vital deal, we don't know what the market thought regarding the Sellers because it's not a public valuation, but we do know what they think of the move from the Buyer's perspective - DOWN!. And, people on the inside knew too, and someone was telling someone to "SELL" because while the rest of the oil complex moved up for 10-15 days, this stock trended down to sideways during the weeks leading up to the deal, and then a pronounced down upon announcement of their deal.

This stock is high beta, and combined with a pop in oil prices, we should have gotten paid but now we know what put a lid on the upside volatility for Vital. This is a Mgmt. misstep just like Talos was a Mgmt. misstep when they allowed themselves to be taken to the cleaners by the Mexican Govt.

Mediocre Mgmt. teams don't necessarily become better. Sure, Mgmt. might get bailed out by a higher commodity price, but that's not value add (like Earthstone), and clearly THIS WEEK is not good news if you hold/held the stock. This Mgmt. team virtue signaled a more green, environmentally friendly company when they changed their name; I should have known this stock was "cheap" for a reason.
Ray_M
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Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:52 pm

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by Ray_M »

My 2 cents... when I step back and look at the weekly charts, as of 9:07 CST the price is back to where it closed on Aug 4th. If we believe (and I'm looking for Dan's revised models) that the company is worth more now than 6 weeks ago, this could be a great opportunity.
dan_s
Posts: 34962
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Vital Energy (VTLE) Update - Sept 14

Post by dan_s »

My updated forecast model for VTLE has been posted to the EPG website.
2024 Forecast
$485.5 million net income ($15.08/share)
$1,038.9 million operating cash flow ($32.26/share)
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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