Sweet 16 Update - Sept 23
Posted: Sat Sep 23, 2023 3:54 pm
I am working on the newsletter all weekend, so this will be short.
The Sweet 16 decline by 5.94% during the week ending September 22 and it is now up 8.86% YTD.
The S&P 500 Index declined by 2.93% during the week and is now up 12.52%.
Fear of the Fed feeds Fear of Recession, which is all I can think of for this pullback.
WTI got to $90/bbl much faster than I expected it to. Natural gas closed at $2.64 on Friday, which is higher than what I have been using in my Q3 forecasts ($2.50), so Q3 results for all of the Sweet 16 should beat my forecasts. Q4 results should be even better.
Team Biden is tripling down on The Green New Deal. FEAR mongering is all they have left to draw attention away from inflation, the border crisis, the endless war in Ukraine and inflation. The global oil market is under-supplied and oil prices need to go higher to balance supply & demand. Saudi Arabia has no interest in bailing out Biden. Other than draining the SPR completely, I don't see much that Biden can do to lower fuel prices. If he drains the SPR, we'll have even more exposure to oil shortages.
EOG is now down YTD, which shows me how crazy this selloff is. MGY also down YTD. It is heavily weighted to oil and it is unhedged.
PR and ESTE (merging in Q4) lead the pack.
Selloffs of SBOW and VTLE in reaction to their equity offerings are way over done. The acquisitions they will soon be closing will set them up for strong growth in 2024.
The Sweet 16 decline by 5.94% during the week ending September 22 and it is now up 8.86% YTD.
The S&P 500 Index declined by 2.93% during the week and is now up 12.52%.
Fear of the Fed feeds Fear of Recession, which is all I can think of for this pullback.
WTI got to $90/bbl much faster than I expected it to. Natural gas closed at $2.64 on Friday, which is higher than what I have been using in my Q3 forecasts ($2.50), so Q3 results for all of the Sweet 16 should beat my forecasts. Q4 results should be even better.
Team Biden is tripling down on The Green New Deal. FEAR mongering is all they have left to draw attention away from inflation, the border crisis, the endless war in Ukraine and inflation. The global oil market is under-supplied and oil prices need to go higher to balance supply & demand. Saudi Arabia has no interest in bailing out Biden. Other than draining the SPR completely, I don't see much that Biden can do to lower fuel prices. If he drains the SPR, we'll have even more exposure to oil shortages.
EOG is now down YTD, which shows me how crazy this selloff is. MGY also down YTD. It is heavily weighted to oil and it is unhedged.
PR and ESTE (merging in Q4) lead the pack.
Selloffs of SBOW and VTLE in reaction to their equity offerings are way over done. The acquisitions they will soon be closing will set them up for strong growth in 2024.