Morgan Stanley Oil & Gas Price Targets - Oct 2

[dan_s]

Resetting the deck. With this note, we update our commodity price assumptions in 2023-25 to reflect the strip as of 9/22.

Our WTI price assumption rises from $74.88 to $80.32 in 2023 and stays flat at $80 in 2024.
Henry Hub moves from $2.94/$3.66 to $2.75/$3.37 in 2023/24, and Mont Belvieu NGLs increase from ~$26.28/$25.95 to $27.81/$28.11.
We now incorporate strip prices of $75 WTI and $3.96 HH in 2025, with our unchanged long-term assumption of $67.50/bbl WTI and $3.25/mmbtu Henry Hub beginning in 2026.

Within the Wall Street Gang, MS has near the lowest oil & gas price forecasts. Keep in mind that these are not really "forecasts". They are just the firm's oil & gas price decks used for valuing upstream companies. In the full report titled "More Room to Run?" they show scenarios from $60WTI to $100WTI.