Sweet 16 Update
Posted: Sun May 13, 2012 3:30 pm
I am updating my Sweet 16 Spreadsheet and double checking all of my Fair Value estimates against First Calls price target for each company.
Despite the S-16 getting hammered with the rest of the market last week, First Call price targets for the S-16 companies keep going up. I'm always interested to see how the analysts react to quarterly results and so far the changes have been mostly positive. First Call's price targets (which are an average of all the analysts that submit targets with their forecast models to Reuters) are creeping toward my Fair Value estimates. As a group, the S-16 is now trading 53% below my Fair Value estimates. This year is looking a lot like 2010 when we had a fantastic 2nd half of the year. I call it the "Coiled Spring" when share prices get this far out of whack with valuations.
IMO the first quarter is the most important because it confirms the line item assumptions made in my models.
My updated spreadsheet will be posted in about 30 minutes (under the Sweet 16 Tab). It will include my Fair Value estimate for each company next to the First Call price target.
Despite the S-16 getting hammered with the rest of the market last week, First Call price targets for the S-16 companies keep going up. I'm always interested to see how the analysts react to quarterly results and so far the changes have been mostly positive. First Call's price targets (which are an average of all the analysts that submit targets with their forecast models to Reuters) are creeping toward my Fair Value estimates. As a group, the S-16 is now trading 53% below my Fair Value estimates. This year is looking a lot like 2010 when we had a fantastic 2nd half of the year. I call it the "Coiled Spring" when share prices get this far out of whack with valuations.
IMO the first quarter is the most important because it confirms the line item assumptions made in my models.
My updated spreadsheet will be posted in about 30 minutes (under the Sweet 16 Tab). It will include my Fair Value estimate for each company next to the First Call price target.