Energy Prospectus

October 13, 2023
SM Energy Company
Model Update For New Price Deck

RBC's Price Target for SM is $46 with their High Case being $56.

Our view: We are updating our 2023-2025 estimates to reflect RBC's recent
commodity price update. We increase our 4Q23 EPS/CFPS by $0.28/$0.36
to $1.86/$3.88 and our FY24 EPS/CFPS by $0.80/$0.95 to $8.50/$16.68. < Compares to my 2024 EPS/CFPS forecast of $8.54/$16.26

Key points:
• Summary of price deck changes (full note). Our 4Q23 HH/WTI forecasts
increase by $0.25/$9.03 to $3.00/Mcf and $86.50/Bbl. Our 2024 HH
forecast was unchanged at $3.50/Mcf, while our WTI expectation
increased by $5.10 to $86.45/Bbl. Our 2025 price assumptions with
$3.75/Mcf for HH and $77/Bbl for WTI.

My valuation of SM increases by $1 to $57.00 because I've raised by natural gas prices for Q3 and Q4. SM's production mix is approximately 44% crude oil, 40% natural gas and 16% NGLs.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 6 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for SM. The average price target among the analysts is $50.71. The six price targets range from $45 to $60."

SM closed at $42.15 today.

SM is up ~21% YTD.