Energy Prospectus

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 9 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for CPG. The average price target among the analysts is $10.79US."

For now, I am leaving my current valuation of CPG at $12.00US just because I don't have a handle on where Canada's natural gas prices are heading. They will probably be higher than what I've used in the CPG model.

Recent Analysts' Updates from TipRanks:
CIBI 10/16/2023: $15.00< $Cdn
National Bank 10/12/2023: $19.00< $Cdn
RBC Capital 10/10/2023: $13.00< $Cdn

Multiply the Cdn price targets above by $0.7327 to get their U.S. price target.

For those of you that follow Eric Nuttall, here is his update:
"Crescent Point has successfully pivoted from a low-productivity Saskatchewan focused oil company to a more balanced oil company with meaningful liquids rich exposure in the Montney. They recently drilled a ~2,000 Boe/d well in their Montney acreage, a 15x increase to their old style Saskatchewan oil wells. With at least 15 years of Tier one acreage the company has lots of running room and is now returning 50% of free cashflow back to shareholders. Trading at a 28 per cent free cashflow yield at US$90WTI we see the company retiring 14% of their shares outstanding while paying down debt by over $500MM. We see fair value at five times EV/CF which at $90WTI = $25.50Cdn target price = 124 per cent potential upside."

Eric Nuttall's Macro Outlook:
"Our forecast from earlier this year has now become reality: global oil inventories have been falling at their fastest pace in history, now down to a six plus year low and likely to end 2023 at a 320MM Bbl deficit to the 2017-2019 average. We see inventories continuing to fall in 2024, owing to strong demand, disciplined production growth, and OPEC+ volume curtailments. We believe that oil will trade in a rough US$85 to US$105 per barrel for about the next year, with the upper band dictated by Saudi Arabia given the imminent twilight of U.S. shale and the commensurate lack of short-cycle supply. In a US$90 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) context, the energy sector is trading at a 17 per cent free cashflow yield, have their strongest balance sheets in history, and within the next several months to quarters, will reach their final debt targets allowing them to pivot to returning 75 per cent to 100 per cent of their free cashflow back to shareholders. We remain bullish."

All of my forecasts are now based on WTI prices of $82 for Q3, $85 for Q4 and $90 for 2024. < The geopolitical risk premium could grow significantly if the U.S. puts sanctions on Iran.