Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 31
Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 9:47 am
Boo! Happy Halloween
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.48 to $82.79/bbl, and Brent is up $0.53 to $87.98/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 6.4c to $3.416/MMBtu.
MY QUICK TAKE: As I discussed in the newsletter, the War in Israel is likely to have the most day-to-day impact on oil prices. The trend we may see is that oil spikes up on Fridays because the paper traders don't want to hold short positions over the weekend. If nothing happens over the weekend to escalate the fighting, especially directly related to Iran, oil prices may pull back each Monday.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Oil is trading higher around $83, after falling more than $3 yesterday
Russian oil shipments climbed for the third consecutive week, overshooting the target set alongside Saudi Arabia to keep some supply off the market
The majority of exports have been shipped to China and India < Have you noticed how China is "winning" by taking advantage of the West's sanctions against Russia. China's able to buy oil from Russia at much cheaper prices and we are powerless to do anything about it. We could sanction India but that would not be a good political move.
Alaskan oil plan threatens future drilling in the state (BBG)
The Biden Administration is pursuing changes that would make it more difficult to pursue oil extraction from new leases in Alaska
ConocoPhillips Alaska said the plan “would discourage investment in the North Slope by adding more layers of permitting requirements and restrictions, even for existing leases,”
The Interior Department argues that the changes are needed to balance development and environmental protection
The administration said the changes won't affect “currently authorized oil and gas operations,” including the 600 MMBbl Willow project approved earlier this year
Natural Gas
Natural gas (Dec) edged 14c higher to $3.51 shortly after 8:30 AM as recent weather model runs showed a shift cooler
The balance of the Winter ’23-’24 strip (Dec-Mar) was up by about 14c as well to $3.55
Most of the early morning lift was isolated to the next 9-12 months of the gas strip
American and European weather models added heating degree days to the outlook overnight, according to NGI
The increase in cold was centered over the Midwest and East Nov. 9-11
“Traders need to be on their toes in case the midday data were to trend further colder or reverse warmer” for day eight to 15 of the outlook (NatGasWeather)
AEGIS Press Release
AEGIS Markets Celebrates Its First Anniversary with Continued Growth on its Hedge Marketplace
After a tremendous year of progress ensuring compliance and improving the efficacy of hedging markets, AEGIS SEF will be referred to as AEGIS Markets going forward. Regarding this change, Chris Payne, President of AEGIS Markets, stated, “We’re overwhelmed by the support and feedback from the Dealers and End Users who are executing on our swap execution facility. While compliance remains important, our mission has always focused on creating a modern marketplace for hedging transactions."
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.48 to $82.79/bbl, and Brent is up $0.53 to $87.98/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 6.4c to $3.416/MMBtu.
MY QUICK TAKE: As I discussed in the newsletter, the War in Israel is likely to have the most day-to-day impact on oil prices. The trend we may see is that oil spikes up on Fridays because the paper traders don't want to hold short positions over the weekend. If nothing happens over the weekend to escalate the fighting, especially directly related to Iran, oil prices may pull back each Monday.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Oil is trading higher around $83, after falling more than $3 yesterday
Russian oil shipments climbed for the third consecutive week, overshooting the target set alongside Saudi Arabia to keep some supply off the market
The majority of exports have been shipped to China and India < Have you noticed how China is "winning" by taking advantage of the West's sanctions against Russia. China's able to buy oil from Russia at much cheaper prices and we are powerless to do anything about it. We could sanction India but that would not be a good political move.
Alaskan oil plan threatens future drilling in the state (BBG)
The Biden Administration is pursuing changes that would make it more difficult to pursue oil extraction from new leases in Alaska
ConocoPhillips Alaska said the plan “would discourage investment in the North Slope by adding more layers of permitting requirements and restrictions, even for existing leases,”
The Interior Department argues that the changes are needed to balance development and environmental protection
The administration said the changes won't affect “currently authorized oil and gas operations,” including the 600 MMBbl Willow project approved earlier this year
Natural Gas
Natural gas (Dec) edged 14c higher to $3.51 shortly after 8:30 AM as recent weather model runs showed a shift cooler
The balance of the Winter ’23-’24 strip (Dec-Mar) was up by about 14c as well to $3.55
Most of the early morning lift was isolated to the next 9-12 months of the gas strip
American and European weather models added heating degree days to the outlook overnight, according to NGI
The increase in cold was centered over the Midwest and East Nov. 9-11
“Traders need to be on their toes in case the midday data were to trend further colder or reverse warmer” for day eight to 15 of the outlook (NatGasWeather)
AEGIS Press Release
AEGIS Markets Celebrates Its First Anniversary with Continued Growth on its Hedge Marketplace
After a tremendous year of progress ensuring compliance and improving the efficacy of hedging markets, AEGIS SEF will be referred to as AEGIS Markets going forward. Regarding this change, Chris Payne, President of AEGIS Markets, stated, “We’re overwhelmed by the support and feedback from the Dealers and End Users who are executing on our swap execution facility. While compliance remains important, our mission has always focused on creating a modern marketplace for hedging transactions."