EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 22
Posted: Wed Nov 22, 2023 1:41 pm
EIA released the weekly ngas report a day early due to the holiday. We are now "officially" at the end of the refill season.
Working gas in storage was 3,826 Bcf as of Friday, November 17, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 7 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 251 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 249 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,577 Bcf.
At 3,826 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. A "Glut" is when storage is full, causing "gas-on-gas" competition for a place to go. Total U.S. storage capacity is ~4,200 Bcf, so that risk is over.
Keep in mind that the U.S. natural gas market is MUCH LARGER than it was five years ago due to many more gas-fired power plants and a big increase in LNG export capacity. So, we do need more gas in storage to meet demand spikes. During December, 2022 we had two big weekly draws of 213 Bcf for the week ending 12/16 and 221 Bcf for the week ending 12/23. After Christmas last year the winter in the eastern U.S. turned very mild and the jet stream ridge locked in east of the Rockies, keeping the cold air in the western U.S. the entire first quarter of 2023. Natural gas prices are "regional" and the West Coast had double-digit ngas prices for most of Q1 2023.
Last year we had La Nina in the Pacific. This year we have a strong El Nino, which should flatten out the jet stream, moving cold waves from west to east. Just a normal El Nino winter and LNG exports staying at or near capacity should draw down storage during Q1 back to the 5-year average by April.
Working gas in storage was 3,826 Bcf as of Friday, November 17, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 7 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 251 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 249 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,577 Bcf.
At 3,826 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. A "Glut" is when storage is full, causing "gas-on-gas" competition for a place to go. Total U.S. storage capacity is ~4,200 Bcf, so that risk is over.
Keep in mind that the U.S. natural gas market is MUCH LARGER than it was five years ago due to many more gas-fired power plants and a big increase in LNG export capacity. So, we do need more gas in storage to meet demand spikes. During December, 2022 we had two big weekly draws of 213 Bcf for the week ending 12/16 and 221 Bcf for the week ending 12/23. After Christmas last year the winter in the eastern U.S. turned very mild and the jet stream ridge locked in east of the Rockies, keeping the cold air in the western U.S. the entire first quarter of 2023. Natural gas prices are "regional" and the West Coast had double-digit ngas prices for most of Q1 2023.
Last year we had La Nina in the Pacific. This year we have a strong El Nino, which should flatten out the jet stream, moving cold waves from west to east. Just a normal El Nino winter and LNG exports staying at or near capacity should draw down storage during Q1 back to the 5-year average by April.