Energy Prospectus

The OPEC cartel is meeting on November 30 and some people think they will announce and end to their production quotas.
In my opinion, the chances of that happening are "slim and none".

Here is the conclusion of an opinion piece from Anas Alhajji who writes The Energy Outlook Advisors' Newsletter

Evidence from previous price wars shows that Saudi Arabia resorts to a price war when the existing or the foreseeable surplus in the oil market is massive and more than 5 mb/d and other OPEC/OPEC+ members do not see it or ignore it. This massive surplus is usually the result of a large increase in production, mostly from non-OPEC members, and a large decrease in demand. In the case of March 2020, there was a major decline in demand caused by the Pandemic. This is not the case now. World oil demand is still growing, although at a lower rate than earlier expectations. For 2024, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.2 mb/d, the EIA by 1.4 mb/d, and the IEA by 0.930 mb/d.

The increase in non-OPEC production remains manageable. For 2024, OPEC expects non-OPEC production to increase by 1.38 mb/d, EIA by 1.2 mb/d, and the IEA by 1.14 mb/d.

The current differences among OPEC+ members can be easily resolved, and the most likely scenario for OPEC+ meeting on November 30 is an agreement— if not among OPEC+ members, then between Saudi Arabia and its allies within OPEC+.

Easier said than done imho. I think Saudis are getting impatient with cheating members and is feeling it is carrying the full load of price cuts. So if the other members agree to reduced quotas and Saudis are satisfied of reasonable chance of compliance, an agreement should be easily reached. Of course this could have been done today. So if no agreement is reached, what actions will Saudi make as a statement to other members.

And lastly the wild card, what promises did A. Blinken make to the Saudis, if any, in his meeting with ABS recently in his quest to keep his job by keeping oil prices low and his boss in the White House? If you consider the promises made by the Biden team just to get an opportunity to bow to Xi in SF, then the promises to Saudis may be a significant factor.