My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website.
Baytex Announces 2024 Budget and Five-Year Outlook with Continued Focus on Free Cash Flow Generation and Shareholder Returns
Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - December 6, 2023) - Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex") announces
that its Board of Directors has approved a budget for 2024 exploration and development expenditures of $1.2 to $1.3 billion,
which is designed to generate average annual production of 150,000 to 156,000 boe/d. < Slightly lower than my forecast of 160,000 Boepd.
"Our 2024 budget and five-year outlook demonstrates the strength of our diversified oil-weighted portfolio in western Canada
and the Eagle Ford shale in Texas. In 2024, we intend to progress the Pembina Duvernay, further delineate our Clearwater and
Mannville heavy oil position, and deliver strong drilling and completion performance in the Eagle Ford. Our business is
underpinned by strong drilling economics and greater than ten years inventory across our portfolio, and our commitment to
shareholder returns is expected to drive meaningful per-share growth in production and free cash flow," commented Eric T.
Greager, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Highlights of the 2024 Budget
> Free Cash Flow: Based on the forward strip, the Company expects to generate approximately $530 million of free cash flow in 2024.
> Reinvestment Rate: Exploration and development expenditures represent approximately 60% of forecast EBITDA.
> Production Growth: Our 2024 production guidance (at the mid-point) represents a 1% to 2% increase from forecast H2/2023 production guidance (7% increase on a per-share basis), adjusted for the previously announced sale of our Forgan and Plato assets in the Viking.
> Capital Efficiency: Our capital program is expected to generate capital efficiencies of approximately $22,000 per boe/d across the portfolio.
> Capital Allocation: We plan to direct 60% to 65% of our exploration and development expenditures to our Eagle Ford light oil assets in the United States and 35% to 40% to our Canadian assets. In Canada, our capital program is expected to be equally split between light oil and heavy oil.
> Shareholder Returns: We intend to allocate 50% of free cash flow to share buybacks and our base dividend and 50% of free cash flow to further strengthen the balance sheet.
Baytex Energy (BTE) 2024 Budget Released - Dec 6
Baytex Energy (BTE) 2024 Budget Released - Dec 6
Last edited by dan_s on Wed Dec 06, 2023 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Baytex Energy (BTE) 2024 Budget Released - Dec 6
More details
2024 Budget: $1.2 to $1.3 Billion ($Cdn)
The 2024 capital program is expected to be 55% weighted to the first half of the year. Based on the mid-point of our production
guidance of 153,000 boe/d, approximately 60% of our production is in the Eagle Ford with the remaining 40% in Canada. Our
production mix is forecast to be 84% liquids (46% light oil and condensate, 25% heavy oil and 13% natural gas liquids) and 16%
natural gas, based on a 6:1 natural gas-to-oil equivalency.
In 2024, we intend to progress the Pembina Duvernay, further delineate our Clearwater and Mannville heavy oil acreage, and
deliver strong drilling and completion performance in the Eagle Ford.
In our Canadian light oil business unit, we expect to bring onstream seven net wells in the Pembina Duvernay and 93 net wells in
the Viking. In our Canadian heavy oil business unit, we expect to bring onstream 35 net Peavine Clearwater wells, 9 net wells at
Peace River, 40 net Lloydminster Mannville wells and 4.5 net wells at Morinville. Our budget also includes continued exploration
across our heavy oil portfolio with up to 14 stratigraphic test wells planned. In our U.S. light oil business unit, we expect to bring
62 net Eagle Ford wells onstream, including 46 net operated wells. For 2024, we are targeting an 8% improvement in our
operated drilling and completion costs per completed lateral foot over 2023.
Shareholder Returns
In 2023, we increased direct shareholder returns to 50% of free cash flow(1) which allowed us to increase the value of our share
buyback program and introduce a dividend. The remainder of our free cash flow continues to be allocated to the balance sheet.
Our normal course issuer bid allows for the purchase of up to 68.4 million common shares during the 12-month period ending
June 28, 2024. Through November 30, 2023, we repurchased 39.1 million common shares for $215 million, representing 4.5%
of our shares outstanding, at an average price of $5.49 per share. In addition, we currently pay a quarterly dividend of $0.0225
per share ($0.09 per share annualized). < If fully utilized this stock buyback will significantly reduce the common stock outstanding, which was 855,300,000 shares as of 9-30-2023. The Ranger Oil Acquisition that closed in June 20, 2023 added ~300,000,000 shares.
Five-Year Outlook
Our updated five-year outlook (2024 to 2028) demonstrates our financial and operational sustainability and ability to generate
meaningful free cash flow. We are committed to a disciplined, returns-based capital allocation philosophy that drives increased
shareholder returns on a per-share basis. We expect to generate annual production growth of 1% to 4% during the plan period,
with production reaching approximately 170,000 boe/d in 2028.
Highlights of our five-year outlook, based on a constant US$70/bbl WTI price(2), include: 60% reinvestment rate(3) with annual exploration and development expenditures of $1.2 to $1.4 billion.
Production per share(4) (boe/d per thousand shares) increases approximately 35% from 2024 to 2028.
Free cash flow per share(1)(4)increases approximately 90% from 2024 to 2028.
Free cash flow(1) over the five-year outlook totals approximately $2.9 billion.
Return of capital(1) over the five-year outlook, including dividends and share repurchases, totals approximately $1.7 billion.
Total debt(5) declines 55% to approximately $1 billion in 2028 and total debt to EBITDA(5) ratio improves to 0.5x.
To illustrate our sensitivity to changes in WTI, based on a constant US$80/bbl and US$90/bbl WTI price, over the five-year outlook, we expect to generate free cash flow(1) of $4.6 billion and $6.0 billion, respectively.
Footnotes:
(1) Specified financial measure that does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRSand may not be comparablewith the calculation of similar measures presented by
other entities. Refer to the Specified Financial Measures section in this press release for further information.
(2) Five-year outlook pricing assumptions: WCSdifferential - US$15/bbl in 2024, US$12/bbl in 2025-2028; NYMEXGas - US$3.50/MMbtu in 2024, US$3.75/MMbtu in 2025-2028;
ExchangeRate (CAD/USD) - 1.35.
(3) Reinvestment rate is calculated as E&Dexpenditures expressed as a percentage of EBITDA for the applicable period.
(4) Includes impact of share buyback program.
(5) Calculated in accordancewith the amended credit facilities agreement which is available on SEDAR+at www.sedarplus.ca.
2024 Budget: $1.2 to $1.3 Billion ($Cdn)
The 2024 capital program is expected to be 55% weighted to the first half of the year. Based on the mid-point of our production
guidance of 153,000 boe/d, approximately 60% of our production is in the Eagle Ford with the remaining 40% in Canada. Our
production mix is forecast to be 84% liquids (46% light oil and condensate, 25% heavy oil and 13% natural gas liquids) and 16%
natural gas, based on a 6:1 natural gas-to-oil equivalency.
In 2024, we intend to progress the Pembina Duvernay, further delineate our Clearwater and Mannville heavy oil acreage, and
deliver strong drilling and completion performance in the Eagle Ford.
In our Canadian light oil business unit, we expect to bring onstream seven net wells in the Pembina Duvernay and 93 net wells in
the Viking. In our Canadian heavy oil business unit, we expect to bring onstream 35 net Peavine Clearwater wells, 9 net wells at
Peace River, 40 net Lloydminster Mannville wells and 4.5 net wells at Morinville. Our budget also includes continued exploration
across our heavy oil portfolio with up to 14 stratigraphic test wells planned. In our U.S. light oil business unit, we expect to bring
62 net Eagle Ford wells onstream, including 46 net operated wells. For 2024, we are targeting an 8% improvement in our
operated drilling and completion costs per completed lateral foot over 2023.
Shareholder Returns
In 2023, we increased direct shareholder returns to 50% of free cash flow(1) which allowed us to increase the value of our share
buyback program and introduce a dividend. The remainder of our free cash flow continues to be allocated to the balance sheet.
Our normal course issuer bid allows for the purchase of up to 68.4 million common shares during the 12-month period ending
June 28, 2024. Through November 30, 2023, we repurchased 39.1 million common shares for $215 million, representing 4.5%
of our shares outstanding, at an average price of $5.49 per share. In addition, we currently pay a quarterly dividend of $0.0225
per share ($0.09 per share annualized). < If fully utilized this stock buyback will significantly reduce the common stock outstanding, which was 855,300,000 shares as of 9-30-2023. The Ranger Oil Acquisition that closed in June 20, 2023 added ~300,000,000 shares.
Five-Year Outlook
Our updated five-year outlook (2024 to 2028) demonstrates our financial and operational sustainability and ability to generate
meaningful free cash flow. We are committed to a disciplined, returns-based capital allocation philosophy that drives increased
shareholder returns on a per-share basis. We expect to generate annual production growth of 1% to 4% during the plan period,
with production reaching approximately 170,000 boe/d in 2028.
Highlights of our five-year outlook, based on a constant US$70/bbl WTI price(2), include: 60% reinvestment rate(3) with annual exploration and development expenditures of $1.2 to $1.4 billion.
Production per share(4) (boe/d per thousand shares) increases approximately 35% from 2024 to 2028.
Free cash flow per share(1)(4)increases approximately 90% from 2024 to 2028.
Free cash flow(1) over the five-year outlook totals approximately $2.9 billion.
Return of capital(1) over the five-year outlook, including dividends and share repurchases, totals approximately $1.7 billion.
Total debt(5) declines 55% to approximately $1 billion in 2028 and total debt to EBITDA(5) ratio improves to 0.5x.
To illustrate our sensitivity to changes in WTI, based on a constant US$80/bbl and US$90/bbl WTI price, over the five-year outlook, we expect to generate free cash flow(1) of $4.6 billion and $6.0 billion, respectively.
Footnotes:
(1) Specified financial measure that does not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRSand may not be comparablewith the calculation of similar measures presented by
other entities. Refer to the Specified Financial Measures section in this press release for further information.
(2) Five-year outlook pricing assumptions: WCSdifferential - US$15/bbl in 2024, US$12/bbl in 2025-2028; NYMEXGas - US$3.50/MMbtu in 2024, US$3.75/MMbtu in 2025-2028;
ExchangeRate (CAD/USD) - 1.35.
(3) Reinvestment rate is calculated as E&Dexpenditures expressed as a percentage of EBITDA for the applicable period.
(4) Includes impact of share buyback program.
(5) Calculated in accordancewith the amended credit facilities agreement which is available on SEDAR+at www.sedarplus.ca.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Baytex Energy (BTE) 2024 Budget Released - Dec 6
The market doesnt like it, down 5 % on top of 20 % declines in last month
its all about the CASH FCF and prices
BTW, the bloat reserves number will be marked down across the board for 2024
its all about the CASH FCF and prices
BTW, the bloat reserves number will be marked down across the board for 2024
Re: Baytex Energy (BTE) 2024 Budget Released - Dec 6
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Baytex and it will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
My valuation stays at $6.80US per share.
The Company's detailed guidance for 2024 and their 5-year plans deserves a higher valuation multiple, so I raise it from 4.0 to 4.5 X annualized operating cash flow per share. I have lowered the oil prices used in my model for Q4 and 2024 to keep the stock valuation at $6.80US per share.
My 2024 forecast is now Earnings Per Share of $0.72Cdn and Operating CFPS of $2.27Cdn. < My 2024 forecast compares to TipRanks's consensus forecasts of $1.21 EPS and $2.87 CFPS. The number of analysts submitting forecasts to TipRanks has recently increased from 5 to 8, which is a good sign for this company.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 8 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for BTE. The average price target among the analysts is $5.85US." The most recent PT update was from Cody Kwong at Stifel Nicolaus on 11-28-2023 who maintained a Buy rating on Baytex Energy (BTE), with a price target of C$8.25. Cody is rated 5-Stars by TipRanks.
At the time of this post, BTW was trading at $3.27US. < Just 1.44 X my 2024 operating CFPS forecast.
My valuation stays at $6.80US per share.
The Company's detailed guidance for 2024 and their 5-year plans deserves a higher valuation multiple, so I raise it from 4.0 to 4.5 X annualized operating cash flow per share. I have lowered the oil prices used in my model for Q4 and 2024 to keep the stock valuation at $6.80US per share.
My 2024 forecast is now Earnings Per Share of $0.72Cdn and Operating CFPS of $2.27Cdn. < My 2024 forecast compares to TipRanks's consensus forecasts of $1.21 EPS and $2.87 CFPS. The number of analysts submitting forecasts to TipRanks has recently increased from 5 to 8, which is a good sign for this company.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 8 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for BTE. The average price target among the analysts is $5.85US." The most recent PT update was from Cody Kwong at Stifel Nicolaus on 11-28-2023 who maintained a Buy rating on Baytex Energy (BTE), with a price target of C$8.25. Cody is rated 5-Stars by TipRanks.
At the time of this post, BTW was trading at $3.27US. < Just 1.44 X my 2024 operating CFPS forecast.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group