EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 20

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 15, 2023

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending December 15, 2023, which was 403 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 92.4% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, increased by 233 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 7.6% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 537 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 225 thousand barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 443.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels from last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are 19% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.7 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million barrels a day, up by 0.2% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, up by 1.9% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 4.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 4.0% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Inventories for the BIG THREE (crude oil, gasoline and distillates) remain below normal for this time of year. WTI prices have firmed up thanks to the situation in the Red Sea. Eventually, Team Biden will need to do something about Iran's support for its proxies that are threatening oil supplies in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs recently cut its oil price forecast for 2024 to between $70 and $90 per barrel of Brent. Previously, the bank had expected prices between $80 and $100 per barrel.

Today it looks like WTI will end up averaging $77 to $78 during the 4th quarter. My Q4 forecasts are based on WTI averaging $75/bbl. I expect all of the Sweet 16 to report 4th quarter Net Income per share at or above my forecasts. Those with a lot of oil & gas hedged will report EPS way above First Call's current 4th quarter estimates thanks to large mark-to-market gains on their hedges. Focus your attention on operating cash flow per share. The Sweet 16 Balance Sheets are in much better shape than a year ago.

We have a Live Webinar tomorrow at 1PM CT. You must register on the EPG website if you wish to attend the live event.

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Oil Flows Change As Shippers Avoid Red Sea Route

The flows of crude and refined products could change in the coming weeks as some of the largest companies in the oil and shipping industries have started to adjust operations to avoid transit through the Red Sea following daily attacks on commercial vessels near the Yemeni coast.

Since the EU embargo on Russian oil and products, volumes of diesel and crude oil sailing northbound in the Red Sea have jumped, which has boosted the importance of flows via the Red Sea, Jay Maroo, Head of Market Intelligence & Analysis (MENA) at Vortexa, said on Monday.

If vessels moved to alternative waypoints such as the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, the voyage duration on the main routes from the Middle East to Europe, from India to Europe, and from Russia to India and China would increase by between 58% and 129%, according to Vortexa. The biggest increase, 129%, in the time it takes for a cargo to arrive at its destination would be on the Middle East Gulf to Mediterranean route, which would take 39 days instead of 17 days, Vortexa says.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com