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KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:57 am
by Fraser921
Dan will have to redo models
Bad bad bad
Lower volume
Higher expense
Lower prices
Delays
Shut in
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:57 am
by dan_s
I have lowered my valuation of KGEI, but don't overreact to timing differences. They do impact Small-Caps the most because each well is more important than they are for the Large-Caps that have thousands of wells and are running a lot of rigs.
My updated forecast model for Kolibri has been posted to the EPG website.
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:48 pm
by Cliff_N
Fraser921 why would the model change? The inputs to the model are changing and therefore the outputs will change.
Cliff
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 1:56 pm
by Fraser921
You answered your own question and Dan validated by lowering his numbers.
Where did i say he would have to change the model?
I said he would have to redo it. And redo it, he did.
Lower volume
Higher expense
Lower prices
Delays
Shut in
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 3:46 pm
by Cliff_N
Quote: "Dan will have to redo models." Again, the MODEL did not change. The data changed.
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2023 9:49 pm
by allen46
Cliff, you are correct. Fraser is very stubborn.
Re: KGEI Lowers guidance
Posted: Sat Dec 23, 2023 12:44 pm
by dan_s
See my comments about KGEI under the Small-Cap Tab. If the Q4 production miss is more than a well-completion timing problem, I will be concerned. I have lowered my valuation by $0.50/share.
As I have posted here many times, most of the stock valuation are going down because I have recently lowered my oil & gas price deck, which was discussed in Thursday's podcast.
Most of the companies will report much better Q4 results than what they reported in Q3, including KGEI.