EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Dec 28

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,490 Bcf as of Friday, December 22, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 87 Bcf from the previous week. < Same as the previous week, so I think this is just EIA's "guess" for this week.
Stocks were 348 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 316 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,174 Bcf.
At 3,490 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Next week's report for the week ending December 29th should show a draw that exceeds the 5-year average draw of 100 Bcf. In January, I expect total draws to be close to 1,000 Bcf.

The 10 day weather forecast from the Weather Channel can be found here: https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast
It shows a much colder start to January 2024 in the Eastern US than we had last year. Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell.com is forecasting much colder than normal weather in the Eastern U.S. for both January and February 2024. Keep an eye on the Chicago 10-day forecast. Chicago is the "Bull's Eye" for natural gas demand for space heating.

Q1 2023 weather was extremely mild in the Eastern U.S. and January 2023 draws from storage were ~300 Bcf below normal for the month. Just a normal January, should push ngas inventories below where they were last year by the end of January 2024. If so, I expect HH gas prices to move over $3.00 heading into February. Just a normal Q1 winter should push inventories back to the 5-year average by April 2024.

[Fraser921]

Celsius had a minus 80 forecast. Next week a puny -42 vs your SWAG OF -100. Avoid all gassers unless you like speculating on cold weather that never comes. Dan, you missed by a country mile for December

[1960]

Please continue to contribute without the personal attacks.
Thank you

[dan_s]

Fraser:
I posted here several times that Strong El Nino winters often start with a mild December and then turn much colder in January.
You are getting close to being locked out. Repeated negative posts are not helpful.

[allen46]

Fraser is an arrogant know it all. I could do without his continued negative posts.

[allen46]

Fraser, I must add the following:

No one can predict oil and NG prices, not Dan, not anybody. but Dan does gives us information about what is happening in the market and makes his best prediction on market pricing, but it is up to us to decide what the pricing will be. Dan's "job" is to give us accurate information about the companies he covers and I think he does an extremely good job of this. The variable he can't control is the price of oil and gas. His predictions of production and other variables has been quite accurate.

Over the past many months he has been very negative about the price of Ng and warned us it could be quite low. So your criticism of him is way way off base. I wish you would go elsewhere, we don't want or need you on this forum.

[dan_s]

"Forecasting is difficult, especially when it is about the future." - Yogi Berra

Oil and gas prices have averaged slightly more in the 4th quarter than the prices I have used in my forecast models ($75 for WTI and $3.00 for HH ngas). Therefore, all of our Sweet 16 companies should report higher Q4 net income than my forecasts. Full year net income for 2023 won't be as good as 2022 net income, but 2023 has been a very good year for all of our model portfolio companies.

[Ray_M]

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