Permian Resources (PR) Updated valuation - Jan 4

[dan_s]

PR closed today at $13.24.

I spent several hours looking at PR this afternoon.
It remains one of my Top Picks in the Sweet 16 and I have increased my current valuation by $0.50 to $19.50/share.
My valuation is just 4.5 X my forecast of annualized operating cash flow for 2023 to 2025.

PR closed the merger with Earthstone Energy on November 1, 2023. The merger increased PR's daily production to ~310,000 Boepd, 47.4% crude oil, 23.2% NGLs and 29.4% natural gas.

Operating cash flow should be over $4.50/share in 2024. < TipRanks operating CFPS forecast for 2024 is $4.46/share.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 12 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for PR. The average price target among the analysts is $17.08. The 12 price targets range from $14.00 to $20.00."

PR has some of the best acreage in the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin.
Based on my forecast PR should generate over $1.2 billion of free cash flow in 2024.