Chesapeake + SWN Merger
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:23 am
Notes below are from one of our very smart EPG members. I plan to take a hard look at this one late in January.
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A Southwestern/Chesapeake merger will not be a one of equals. SWN has a stronger resource base with more reserves (66%), higher production (24%), higher RRR (55%), longer lasting production (33%) and lower unit costs (-10%).
CHK has a stronger balance sheet with less debt (-51%), more equity (82%) and a far higher solvency. SWN generates a higher net profit (45%) but has a much lower PE and a lower market value.
Resource base - Southwestern (first) - Chesapeake (second):
• Proven reserves: 21.6 tcf - 13.0 tcf.
• Production rate (2023): 4,580 MM scfe/d – 3,673 MM scfe/d.
• 2019-2022 Reserve Replacement (RRR:) 1.24 - 0.80
• Liquid content: 3.3% - 3.3%.
• Years of equivalent production: 12.9 years - 9.7 years.
• Unit cost (incl interest DD&A and overheads): $ 2.21/MM Btu - $ 2.41/MM Btu.
Financial position:
• Long term debt: $ 4,144 M - $ 2,032 M.
• Equity: $ 6,537 M - $ 10,628 M.
• Solvency: 50.4% - 72.1%.
Profitability (Henry Hub at $ 2.66/MM Btu)
• 2024 net profit: $ 1.290 M - $ 890 M. Includes cash hedging profits.
• 2024 eps: $ 1.17 - $ 6.46.
• 2024 price earnings ratio: 5.9 - 12.3.
• Market value: $ 7.6 B - $ 10.5 B
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A Southwestern/Chesapeake merger will not be a one of equals. SWN has a stronger resource base with more reserves (66%), higher production (24%), higher RRR (55%), longer lasting production (33%) and lower unit costs (-10%).
CHK has a stronger balance sheet with less debt (-51%), more equity (82%) and a far higher solvency. SWN generates a higher net profit (45%) but has a much lower PE and a lower market value.
Resource base - Southwestern (first) - Chesapeake (second):
• Proven reserves: 21.6 tcf - 13.0 tcf.
• Production rate (2023): 4,580 MM scfe/d – 3,673 MM scfe/d.
• 2019-2022 Reserve Replacement (RRR:) 1.24 - 0.80
• Liquid content: 3.3% - 3.3%.
• Years of equivalent production: 12.9 years - 9.7 years.
• Unit cost (incl interest DD&A and overheads): $ 2.21/MM Btu - $ 2.41/MM Btu.
Financial position:
• Long term debt: $ 4,144 M - $ 2,032 M.
• Equity: $ 6,537 M - $ 10,628 M.
• Solvency: 50.4% - 72.1%.
Profitability (Henry Hub at $ 2.66/MM Btu)
• 2024 net profit: $ 1.290 M - $ 890 M. Includes cash hedging profits.
• 2024 eps: $ 1.17 - $ 6.46.
• 2024 price earnings ratio: 5.9 - 12.3.
• Market value: $ 7.6 B - $ 10.5 B