Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 3,336 Bcf as of Friday, January 5, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 140 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 436 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 348 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,988 Bcf.
At 3,336 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

My "guess" is that this larger than expected draw from storage is just correcting the understated draw of the previous week. I've been doing this for decades and EIA makes mistakes during the holidays.

The next three reports should wipe out the surplus to last year.

HFI Research's take:

For the natural gas market, the bearish start to December was not welcomed, but if January had turned out to be warmer than normal, then fundamentally speaking, things would have been very bad for U.S. natural gas prices (possibly below $2/MMBtu).

In the latest weather update, the polar vortex we are going to see in the 6-10-day range will be enough to push storage draws meaningfully higher. For now, we are seeing -225 Bcf (for the week ending Jan 19), but this figure is likely to move higher as we see the daily figures come in.

Looking at our storage draw projections, we have total withdrawals ~68 Bcf higher than the 5-year average and 280 Bcf higher than last year. End of season (EOS) is still pegged at ~1.9 Tcf with the market current undersupplied by ~1.94 Bcf/d. < 5-year average EOS storage level is ~1.6 Tcf, but keep in mind that the demand for U.S. natural gas is much higher than it was five years ago, so 1.9 Tcf EOS is not a significant surplus.
One thing readers should note is that as the cold blast hits, Lower 48 gas production will decline due to production shut-ins. In essence, we could see the possibility of supplies surprising to the downside, while demand simultaneously surprises to the upside.

For Q1 balances, we expect Lower 48 gas production to average ~104 Bcf/d.