EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 18

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,182 Bcf as of Friday, January 12, 2024, according to EIA estimates. < Impact of the Polar Vortex will show up in next week's EIA report.
This represents a net decrease of 154 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 350 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 320 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,862 Bcf. < Next week's report should reduce the surplus to last year's inventory level by ~175 Bcf.
At 3,182 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

During January 2023 only ~370 Bcf was drawn from storage; less than 50% of the 5-year average draws for January. This year we are on pace to see more than 800 Bcf drawn from storage during January 2024.

The last six storage reports show draws less than the 5-year average. Based on the current weather forecast, at least the next three weeks should be draws that exceed the 5-year average.

Well "Freeze Offs" have happened, but it is difficult to estimate the impact on daily oil and gas supplies. Severe cold in Ohio and Pennsylvania will have the most impact on natural gas production.

[uberCOAT]

Estimates for next week are draws of over 300Bcf and some upward to 325bcf. If we get that storage will go from 12% and 11% over the year ago and 5 year average to 4% and 5% respectively. We shall see...need cold weather to last and production needs to subside.