At Adam Target on thoughtful Money on substack has a discussion on peak energy.
My Mac doesn't allow me to cut and paste the url.
It is an amazing discussion on energy and where it is headed with two different views.
Doomberg and Adam Rozencwaig
Re: Doomberg and Adam Rozencwaig
My take is that Adam Rozencwajg (misspelled in the title above) is focused on crude oil and Doomberg's definition includes NGLs.
When the Permian Basin production peaks, the price of oil will increase because there are no known fields that will come online quick enough to replace it. The Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays have already peaked.
More expensive black oil will incentivize refiners to figure out how to blend more NGLs into gasoline and diesel.
U.S. and OECD inventories are currently at low enough levels that should be pushing up oil prices.
We are not yet running out to oil and definitely we are far from running out of natural gas reserves, BUT Adam's point is that demand for black oil will happen soon and the prices for WTI and Brent will need to rise to "ration oil by price". Keep in mind that demand for oil-based fuels is seasonal and it will go up by over 2 million bpd in Q2. This is why I believe WTI will average $82.50 in 2H 2024.
I do believe we will see WTI over $100/bbl in 2025 barring a significant global recession.
When the Permian Basin production peaks, the price of oil will increase because there are no known fields that will come online quick enough to replace it. The Bakken and Eagle Ford shale plays have already peaked.
More expensive black oil will incentivize refiners to figure out how to blend more NGLs into gasoline and diesel.
U.S. and OECD inventories are currently at low enough levels that should be pushing up oil prices.
We are not yet running out to oil and definitely we are far from running out of natural gas reserves, BUT Adam's point is that demand for black oil will happen soon and the prices for WTI and Brent will need to rise to "ration oil by price". Keep in mind that demand for oil-based fuels is seasonal and it will go up by over 2 million bpd in Q2. This is why I believe WTI will average $82.50 in 2H 2024.
I do believe we will see WTI over $100/bbl in 2025 barring a significant global recession.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Doomberg and Adam Rozencwaig
If you listen to the end, they agree that wind and solar is stupid, especially wind. Nuclear is the answer if we even hope to reduce oil demand.
However, even if we move rapidly to nuclear power, we are going to need more oil each year for decade to come. There is nothing that will replace oil for several more decades.
Natural gas is wonderful because it is also a great transportation fuel. The U.S. and Canada are blessed to have abundant natural gas reserves.
Energy abundance is why Americans and Canadians enjoy a high standard of living. Our current administrations war of fossil fuels is insane. It is a war on our standard of living.
However, even if we move rapidly to nuclear power, we are going to need more oil each year for decade to come. There is nothing that will replace oil for several more decades.
Natural gas is wonderful because it is also a great transportation fuel. The U.S. and Canada are blessed to have abundant natural gas reserves.
Energy abundance is why Americans and Canadians enjoy a high standard of living. Our current administrations war of fossil fuels is insane. It is a war on our standard of living.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group