Vital Energy (VTLE) Valuation Update - Feb 2

[dan_s]

Using my lower natural gas price deck for 2024 & 2025 in my model for Vital only lowers my valuation by $2 to $100 per share. < Just 3.25 X operating CFPS.

Natural gas sales were less than 6% of Vital's revenues in 2023. I could take the natural gas price to $1.00 for 2024 & 2025 and it would have a minor impact on my valuation. The primary reason for the $2 lower valuation is that I lowered Q1 2024 production a bit for weather related impact on their production.

VTLE is trading today at $42.50.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 11 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for VTLE. The average price target among the analysts is $59.58. The 11 price targets range from $46 to $102."

My modeling assumptions for 2024 now look conservative because TipRanks' operating CFPS forecast of $29.77 for 2024 is more than $2.00 higher than my forecast. TipRanks' CFPS forecast for 2025 is now $30.76

Vital pre-announced Q4 2023 production of 113,400 Boepd that was more than 8,000 Boepd higher than my forecast.

[Fraser921]

I got out of this mid 50’s when they screwed investors with lousy deal. I think they did it for stock options and to secure their cushy executive positions

So far. I have been right and avoided the carnage from 60 to 40