Vital Energy (VTLE) Valuation Update - Feb 2
Posted: Fri Feb 02, 2024 3:41 pm
Using my lower natural gas price deck for 2024 & 2025 in my model for Vital only lowers my valuation by $2 to $100 per share. < Just 3.25 X operating CFPS.
Natural gas sales were less than 6% of Vital's revenues in 2023. I could take the natural gas price to $1.00 for 2024 & 2025 and it would have a minor impact on my valuation. The primary reason for the $2 lower valuation is that I lowered Q1 2024 production a bit for weather related impact on their production.
VTLE is trading today at $42.50.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 11 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for VTLE. The average price target among the analysts is $59.58. The 11 price targets range from $46 to $102."
My modeling assumptions for 2024 now look conservative because TipRanks' operating CFPS forecast of $29.77 for 2024 is more than $2.00 higher than my forecast. TipRanks' CFPS forecast for 2025 is now $30.76
Vital pre-announced Q4 2023 production of 113,400 Boepd that was more than 8,000 Boepd higher than my forecast.
Natural gas sales were less than 6% of Vital's revenues in 2023. I could take the natural gas price to $1.00 for 2024 & 2025 and it would have a minor impact on my valuation. The primary reason for the $2 lower valuation is that I lowered Q1 2024 production a bit for weather related impact on their production.
VTLE is trading today at $42.50.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 11 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for VTLE. The average price target among the analysts is $59.58. The 11 price targets range from $46 to $102."
My modeling assumptions for 2024 now look conservative because TipRanks' operating CFPS forecast of $29.77 for 2024 is more than $2.00 higher than my forecast. TipRanks' CFPS forecast for 2025 is now $30.76
Vital pre-announced Q4 2023 production of 113,400 Boepd that was more than 8,000 Boepd higher than my forecast.