Energy Prospectus

Last week -79
week 2 -86
week 3 -110
week 4 -161

Delta to 5 yr avg + 216

Please post the website link.

Its behind a paywall but let see, tell me if you see it

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

New numbers

-74
-83
-108
-164

4 week total -429 >>>> + 224 to 5 year avg, so we lost 8 bcf overnight

Came in at -75

He is always very close

Next 3 weeks he has

-80
-106
-168

If draws from storage for the weeks ending March 1 and March 8 are also triple digit draws, storage at the end of March should be ~1,850 Bcf. That would be about 200 Bcf above the 5-year average, but well within the 5-year range.

Getting Freeport back to full export capacity should help.

Thanks Fraser. I was able to see the projections at the top of the page of the URL that you provided.

Just looking at it tonight it got warmer

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

-73 , -92 , -153, -109 + 12 warmer than yesterday

NG is even selling off more overnight, Unbelievable! 1.856!!

OVERNIGHT LOW 181.7

The gassers did better today vs the commodity. There has to be a low in here , somewhere

In its weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, the EIA announced Thursday morning that natural gas inventories fell by -75 BCF for the week of January 27-February 2. Thanks to unseasonably warm temperatures across the Lower 48 throughout the week, this was a massive 118 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average, though it did come in very close to my -74 BCF projection, as well as the majority of the analyst consensus. With the draw, inventories fell to just 2584 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average surged to +248 BCF. The year-over-year surplus now stands at +187 BCF.

All five storage regions registered bearish withdrawals or, in the case of the Pacific Region, bearish injections. The South Central Region led the way with a meager -3 BCF withdrawal, 61 BCF bearish all on its own. After flipping to a regional deficit last week, South Central Inventories now stand at a +55 BCF which will invariably reach triple digits—and a region high—over the next 1-2 weeks.
The East Region arguably saw the least bearish withdrawal at -37 BCF, “only” 13 BCF bearish versus the -5-year average. The Midwest saw the largest absolute withdrawal at -38 BCF, though this was a steep 22 BCF weaker than the Region’s -60 BCF 5-year average.

Through the first 12 weeks of the traditional storage withdrawal season, natural gas inventories have fallen by a total -1249 BCF, 45 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and the second smallest to-date draw in the last 5 years. However, the spread between the second smallest draw and the third largest draw (2018-19’s -1287 BCF) is just 38 BCF. 2021-22 continues to have the largest to-date withdrawal at -1543 BCF while 2019-20 saw the 5-year low at -1123 BCF. Over the next 2 weeks, expect the current season to put some distance between it and the two seasons above it and, potentially, even encroach on 2019-20’s 5-year low.