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Some Good Advice

Posted: Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:22 am
by dan_s
Sent to me by an EPG Founding Member.

"The Grass is Blue"

The donkey told the tiger, “The grass is blue.”

The tiger replied, “No, the grass is green.”

The discussion became heated, and the two decided to submit the issue to arbitration, so they approached the lion.

As they approached the lion on his throne, the donkey started screaming: ′′Your Highness, isn’t it true that the grass is blue?”

The lion replied: “If you believe it is true, the grass is blue.”

The donkey rushed forward and continued: ′′The tiger disagrees with me, contradicts me, and annoys me. Please punish him.”

The king then declared: ′′The tiger will be punished with 3 days of silence.”

The donkey jumped with joy and went on his way, content and repeating ′′The grass is blue, the grass is blue…”

The tiger asked the lion, “Your Majesty, why have you punished me, after all, the grass is green?” The lion replied, ′′You’ve known and seen the grass is green.” The tiger asked, ′′So why do you punish me?”

The lion replied, “That has nothing to do with the question of whether the grass is blue or green. The punishment is because it is degrading for a brave, intelligent creature like you to waste time arguing with an ass, and on top of that, you came and bothered me with that question just to validate something you already knew was true!”

The Lesson of this story
The biggest waste of time is arguing with the fool and fanatic who
doesn’t care about truth or reality, but only the victory of his beliefs and
illusions. Never waste time on discussions that make no sense. There
are people who, for all the evidence presented to them, do not have the
ability to understand. Others who are blinded by ego, hatred and
resentment, and the only thing that they want is to be right even if they

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Sun Feb 11, 2024 9:27 pm
Good Advise

Perhaps the lion should have some fiduciary responsibility for the investors? After all- He is the Master with all the knowledge. Your riddle is false from the beginning. The Master is ultimately responsible for everything he touts. I cannot understand what is happening does not cut it. These small cos. Are the only ones who will talk with you or respond to seminars. At the same time you are learning, I am learning the hard way. Claiming no responsibility is not an escape or the behavior of a Lion. I accept responsibility for trusting your advice and making some bad choices. Your fable maker is laughing his butt off that he is out of this.

Marc Wolin

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:25 am
by dan_s
The oil & gas industry is a cyclical business. After the peak of the pandemic fear in 2020 caused a selloff, we had three very good years.

From 1/1/2021 to 12/31/2023 the current Sweet 16 stocks gained 218%. During the same three years the S&P 500 Index gained 27%.

My job is to find profitable companies and bring them to your attention. Which ones you buy or sell is up to you.
I really don't know which ones will be the big winners, but I do believe that investing in profitable companies gives investors a better chance of beating the market. Some people do well investing in the hot "Story Stocks", but I don't know how to value them.

Today 7 tech stocks are pushing the S&P 500 Index up, but they are now trading at very high multiples. If you feel better following the herd, go for it.

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:26 am
by 1960
Dan, thank you for sharing your knowledge of the oil and gas industry.

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:36 am
by JBtheBrit
Well said Dan. As we should all know here....investment decisions sit entirely with each of us as individual investors. I truly value this forum and all your work on EPG.... I certainly don;t agree with everything... but that is what makes a market and I think its always valuable to listen to credible arguments on both sides and then forma view / thesis. Keep up the great work. JB

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2024 12:35 pm
by dan_s
The Sweet 16 has gotten off to a rough start this year, but as you will see when they report Q4 results, the companies are in very good financial shape and the entire sector is grossly oversold. FANG's merger with Endeavor is drawing some attention to the whole group.

Small-caps do have more risk, but they also have a lot of upside. All 7 of the companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio are profitable and they are trading today at less than 2.5 X operating cash flow. No profitable upstream company with quality Running Room should trade at a multiple that low.

My forecast/valuation models are only as good as the assumptions they are based on. I really don't know where oil & gas prices are heading and, as I mentioned in Saturday's podcast, our EIA (grossly overfunded) doesn't know either.

I appreciate your support.

Re: Some Good Advice

Posted: Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:27 pm
Good Advise

I think this will work out in the long run. The situation got much too convoluted and problematic with the buyout prices so low and a lack of wiggle room and leverage. Eventually oil prices will go up and give an opportunity to get out. I made the decisions and I can afford to wait. Dan is knowledgeable and does his best, but no one has a crystal ball.

Marc Wolin