Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending February 9, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending February 9, 2024, which was 297 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 80.6% of their operable capacity last week. < This low utilization rate is primary reason for crude oil inventory build.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 437 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.1 million barrels per day, 7.2% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 436 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 135 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 12.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 439.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. < Shortages of diesel is becoming a significant global problem. Read the article at the link in the next post.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.8 million barrels a day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.3 million barrels a day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Diesel Shortage likely to cause high fuel prices for truckers and drive up inflation.

Diesel Prices Set to Surge in 2024
By ZeroHedge - Feb 09, 2024, 4:00 PM CST
Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates are below normal, leading to upward pressure on fuel prices.
Recovery of industrial economies in North America and Western Europe is driving increased demand for diesel, exacerbating the inventory shortage.
Supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions, such as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries and Houthi attacks on shipping, are further tightening distillate supplies.

By John Kemp, senior market analyst for Reuters
Global stocks of diesel and other middle distillates are below normal and prices could start to rise quickly if the industrial economies of North America and Western Europe emerge from their lingering recession in 2024.

Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Diesel-Prices-Set-to-Surge-in-2024.html

This is a big problem most OECD countries: "Diesel and other distillate fuel oils are the workhorse of the industrial economy, widely used in manufacturing, freight transport and construction, and therefore the most sensitive fuels to the condition of the business cycle."

This is contributing to the crude oil inventory build and to the shortage of diesel.

HOUSTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - BP Plc (BP.L), opens new tab plans to keep the 435,000 barrel-per-day (bpd) Whiting, Indiana refinery shut for up to three weeks for inspections of units and piping following a Feb. 1 plant-wide power outage, said people familiar with operations on Wednesday.
The inspections could be completed in as short a time as two weeks, the sources said.
A BP spokesperson did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Any damage discovered by the inspections could lengthen the time the refinery is shut, the sources said.

I've seen estimates of three weeks before this very large refinery comes back online.