Energy Prospectus

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

-86
-122
-61

+ 147 to 5 yr avg

next 4 weeks

-64
-107
-41
-73

4 week vs 5 yr average +211

natural gas inventories fell to 2535 BCF, which is a 5-year high for the week. The surplus versus the 5-year average surged to +348 BCF
Adding 211 to the 348 we have big numbers

+240 now vs 5 yr average

Actual for week 1 was 60 vs his 64..very accurate!!

now has
-99
-34
-20
-46
+172 to 5 yr avg

Season ending inventory aiming for 2.2 TCF or more


https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

With the withdrawal, natural gas inventories fell to 2470 BCF while the surplus versus the 5-year average jumped to +451 BCF, a nearly 4-year high. The year-over-year surplus stands at +265 BCF. Inventories are at 5-year highs for the date.

The bearishness of the week’s draw was driven largely by unseasonably mild temperatures throughout the week across much of the Lower 48 that suppressed heating demand. However, thanks to higher production, weaker LNG exports, and stronger wind generation, temperature-adjusted supply/demand imbalances came in at an estimated 3.2 BCF/day loose versus the 5-year average, suggesting that approximately 22 BCF of that 108 BCF of bearishness was due to an underlying weakness in fundamentals.

Based on this latest storage data, the near- and extended term temperature outlook, and expected supply/demand imbalances, I am now projecting that inventories will bottom for the season at the end of March at 2220 BCF, an enormous +594 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and easily the single highest in the last 5 years. Since 1994, it would be the third highest nadir, lower only than 2012’s 2369 BCF and 2016’s 2468 BCF. Not good company to keep. Since bottoming at around 1825 BCF in mid-January, my projections have surged nearly 400 BCF as unseasonably mild temperatures have persisted in what is likely to be the Lower 48’s warmest winter on record. Click HERE for more on my long-term storage projections

Came in at -96 vs Celsius -99 forecast

projecting that inventories will bottom for the season at the end of March at 2220 BCF, an enormous +594 BCF bearish versus the 5-year average and easily the single highest in the last 5 years.

That with other gas negatives:
Obiden admin foot on brakes for LNG
CRK and EQT continuing to drill and complete
Saudi massive gas development
Qatar major expansion of LNG

Positives
Hope for new admin in DC that is pipeline and regulatory friendly in January 2025
Massive buildout of energy hungry data centers in US
Renewed expansion of domestic chemical plants

Biden's "Pause" on approvals for LNG export facilities does not impact the large facilities nearing completion that are expected to come online in 2024 and 2025. President Trump will fast track the approvals.

Came in at -40 vs -34