Since you asked, I really like TNK and TK
You need to reed review this earnings presentation. Look at page 8, 30 % FCF yield, none of our gassers or oily companies has this earnings metric
https://www.teekay.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/TNK-Q3-23-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
TNK
Re: TNK
Thanks Fraser for all the info. I have been reading their earnings calls, as well as looking at value line reports. Value line does not cover the ones you mentioned, which does not mean anything. Will be interesting to see what happens in light of the new bombing of a ship in the red Sea today. Sounds like maybe a basket of TK and TNK and Scorpio.
Re: TNK
It will be back.
One issue is they are to making too much money and keeping it all. Some people think their capital allocation strategy sucks. I for one don't like dividends. When I get a dividend, I get a tax bill.
They never paid a dividend for last 10 years. Last year, Q1, they paid a special of a dollar and started a 25 cent quarterly dividend. They never signaled and more than that.
So they reported quarterly earnings of 2.91 per share for the qtr and 14.65 for the year
So some people are pissed that they are only getting 25 cents when they made 2.91 for the qtr and 14,65 for the year!. What did they do with the cash, they paid off all their debt. They have a 25 year asset with no debt.
Cash flow break even is 16 k a day. In q1 they are earning 50 k per ship per day. Q1 is going to be better than q4
The 2nd issue, was analyst expectations were 3.25 and it came in at 2.91. 2 of the 3 estimates were stale and a year old, so I call that shitty estimates.
I was adding on the dip.
consider this:
----------------------------------------------------
TK is basically an ETF that owns
287 m cash
& 9.8 m shares of TNK. 9.8 m shares of TNK
-------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday closing price of 54.78 = 537 m+ the cash of 287 = 824 m. There are 91 m shares outstanding. 824/91= 9.05. It closed at 7.26.
So it trades at a 21 % discount to NAV. Also TNK at 54.78 is trading at a 20 % discount at 68.50 FMV.
So with TK you have a stock that is trading at 20 % discount and 31 % discount at 10.54 mark to market.
No you wont get that unless it liquidates and that won't happen, so a discount is appropriate
Management got an earful for being cheap bastards, and some people consider dividends found money. If a company pays out 100 m , the company is 100m poorer. So I'm baffled why people are so focused on that one item
One issue is they are to making too much money and keeping it all. Some people think their capital allocation strategy sucks. I for one don't like dividends. When I get a dividend, I get a tax bill.
They never paid a dividend for last 10 years. Last year, Q1, they paid a special of a dollar and started a 25 cent quarterly dividend. They never signaled and more than that.
So they reported quarterly earnings of 2.91 per share for the qtr and 14.65 for the year
So some people are pissed that they are only getting 25 cents when they made 2.91 for the qtr and 14,65 for the year!. What did they do with the cash, they paid off all their debt. They have a 25 year asset with no debt.
Cash flow break even is 16 k a day. In q1 they are earning 50 k per ship per day. Q1 is going to be better than q4
The 2nd issue, was analyst expectations were 3.25 and it came in at 2.91. 2 of the 3 estimates were stale and a year old, so I call that shitty estimates.
I was adding on the dip.
consider this:
----------------------------------------------------
TK is basically an ETF that owns
287 m cash
& 9.8 m shares of TNK. 9.8 m shares of TNK
-------------------------------------------------------
Yesterday closing price of 54.78 = 537 m+ the cash of 287 = 824 m. There are 91 m shares outstanding. 824/91= 9.05. It closed at 7.26.
So it trades at a 21 % discount to NAV. Also TNK at 54.78 is trading at a 20 % discount at 68.50 FMV.
So with TK you have a stock that is trading at 20 % discount and 31 % discount at 10.54 mark to market.
No you wont get that unless it liquidates and that won't happen, so a discount is appropriate
Management got an earful for being cheap bastards, and some people consider dividends found money. If a company pays out 100 m , the company is 100m poorer. So I'm baffled why people are so focused on that one item
Re: TNK
thanks for the update. I like dividends on some of my stocks but fully understand the benefits of paying down debt and buybacks. I prefer total return like you. I may add. STNG held up well. These sound like some of our OG stocks with big cash flows/share . thanks.