EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 29

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,374 Bcf as of Friday, February 23, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 96 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 248 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 498 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,876 Bcf.
At 2,374 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

There are five weeks left in the winter heating season.

Looks like End Of Season (EOS) storage level will be ~2,150 Bcf, which is 500 Bcf higher than the 5-year average EOS storage level of 1,650 Bcf.

Looking forward instead of backwards, NGas storage as measured on Days of Demand is about right for a nation that is very dependent on natural gas fired power plants.

Natural gas prices will drift higher, but this will be a tough quarter for all of our "gassers". It is important now to know the production mix of each company in your portfolio. Also, take a close look at their hedges. You can find production mix and hedges at the bottom of each one of the forecast models on our website.

More export capacity has already rebalanced the U.S. NGL market, so NGL prices have rebounded. A lot more export capacity for U.S. natural gas is coming online in 2H 2024. The NYMEX DEC24 contract for Henry Hub gas is $3.46/MMBtu this morning.

Trading Economics: "Propane prices at the Mont Belvieu distribution hub in Texas held near $0.9 per gallon, not far from an almost 1-1/2 year high recorded on March 1st, as demand remained strong and missile attacks in Middle East fueled concerns about shipments. According to the latest EIA report, the US propane inventories dropped to 54.6 million barrels on the week to February 16th, down from 63.3 million barrels in the same period year earlier and marking the softest reading since the end of June 2022. Meanwhile, exports rose to 1.911 on the week to February 16th, up from 1.675 a year ago and well above the four-week averages."

[Fraser921]

Celsius is at 2,220 End of season

Some were projecting that we would be even just a month ago