Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 8, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending March 8, 2024, which was 390 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 86.8% of their operable capacity last week. < Needs to ramp up to 95% by the end of March to meet transportation fuel demand spike. Plus, farmers need a lot of diesel for planting our food supply.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.7 million barrels per day from the previous week. < Dip might have something to do with situation in the Red Sea.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 2.9% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 634 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 171 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 447.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 5.7 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels from last week and are 8% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, up by 1.0% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, down by 1.3% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.5% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.0% compared with the same four week period last year.
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We are in the early days of the annual spike in demand for transportation fuels and U.S. crude oil, gasoline and diesel inventories are all below normal for this time of year. Risk for oil prices is to the upside.

From OilPrice.com: Oil Ticks Up as EIA Confirms Crude, Gasoline Draws
By Irina Slav - Mar 13, 2024, 9:37 AM CDT

Crude oil prices moved higher today after the Energy Information Administration reported an estimated inventory draw of 1.5 million barrels for the week to March 8. Gasoline stocks also declined while middle distillates inched up.

The figures compared with a crude oil inventory build of 1.4 million barrels for the previous week, with substantial declines in both gasoline and middle distillates for that week.

A day before the EIA released its report, the American Petroleum Institute reported inventory draws across both crude and fuels, pushing oil prices higher on Tuesday. Benchmarks continued higher on Wednesday morning.

In gasoline, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 5.7 million barrels for the week to March 8, which compared with a decline of some 4 million barrels for the previous week.

Gasoline production last week averaged 9.9 million barrels daily, which compared with 9.6 million barrels daily for the previous week.

In middle distillates, the EIA reported an inventory increase of 900,000 barrels for the week to March 8, with production averaging 4.6 million bpd.

These changes compared with an inventory draw of 4.1 million barrels and production averaging 4.3 million barrels daily for the previous week.
A day before it released its weekly oil inventory report, the EIA revised its U.S. oil production outlook in its Short-Term Energy Outlook, now expecting stronger growth than earlier. The EIA now expects production to add 260,000 bpd this year, for a total of 13.19 million barrels daily. That’s up from a modest 170,000 bpd growth projection earlier. < This is lower than the U.S. oil production in December 2023 that was 13.315 million bpd.

This should have been bearish for prices, but the EIA also said in its STEO that it saw OPEC production remain constrained while demand strengthened, which would lead to a tighter market beginning as soon as the second quarter of the year.

Following this report—and the API’s inventory estimate—prices moved higher, boosted additionally by expectations of rate cuts by the Fed come summer. These expectations are not based on signals from Fed officials who remain cautious about any rate-cutting commitments especially as inflation ticked higher in February.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

This morning U.S. Energy Development (which is hosting our Houston luncheon on March 28) confirmed that three major U.S. banks have raised their WTI price forecasts for Q2.
> Duetsche Bank: $80 to $82
> RBC Capital: $75 to $80
> JPMorgan: $75 to $80