Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) Valuation Update - Mar 14

[dan_s]

At the time of this post GRNT was trading at $6.16. Annualized dividend yield at that price is 7.14%. $0.11/Quarter

I have updated my forecast valuation model for their good Q4 2023 results and updated guidance.

I've lowered my current valuation by $0.25 to $8.75, just "tweaking" a few thinks in the model. This one is a keeper.

The Company's production mix is 47% crude oil and 53% natural gas and NGLs, which they report on a combined basis (making it more difficult for me to estimate the combined gas price). 78.5% of Q4 revenues came from crude oil sales. Looks like Q1 WTI oil price will average more than what I'm using in all of my models ($75/bbl).

Q1 production will be down from Q4 because they sold some Permian Basin producing assets to Vital Energy (VTLE). They were paid in stock, which is interesting and gives them a nice liquid asset.

After Q1 they should report steady production growth.

My updated forecast model has been posted to the EPG website.