Energy Prospectus

Any thoughts on the bump our favorite gassers are getting today?

Seems like we have a ways to go before things look up but market is popping this am.

We’ve had a moderately colder than expected last few days here in the Upper Midwest including our first blizzard of the year. But, it looks like we’ll be seeing more typical temperatures next week.

Agree we still have a ways to go for gas.

Some money managers are looking at the NYMEX strip: JUL24 closed today at $2.30 and DEC24 to MAR25 are now firmly over $3.00. FEB25 closed at $3.51 today.

Just remember that the NYMEX strip is not a forecast.

I would advise EQT and RRC to hedge as much Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gas at the current strip as they can. They are both going to be fine if HH gas just get back to $2.50. If they can lock in $3.00 for a few months during the next winter they should hedge it all.

Near-term for gassers looks bad to me, but market forces will get the U.S. gas market rebalanced. We need to get the Freeport LNG export facility back online and then get Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG export facility online in Q3. If those two facilities ramp up, the U.S. gas market will be balanced. New LNG export facilities at Corpus Christi (Cheniere train #3) and Golden Pass Train 1 in Q4 and Golden Pass Train 2 in Q1 2025 appear to be on schedule.