EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 10

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 5, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending April 5, 2024, which was 115 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 88.3% of their operable capacity last week. < Still too low to keep up with summer transportation fuel demand.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 183 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 4.8% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 730 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 163 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 457.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. < U.S. oil production is flat, so this increase is due to higher net imports of crude oil (i.e. - less U.S. light oil was exported).
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.1 million barrels from last week and are 9% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 12.4 million barrels last week.


Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.0 million barrels a day, down by 0.4% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, down by 2.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 8.9% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 3.5% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Initial reaction of traders pushed the NYMEX MAY24 contract under $85/bbl, but it has already bounced back off the low of $84.55 and is now back over $85.

Oil prices are set by global supply/demand. U.S. crude oil inventory build caused by more net imports is not an increase in global oil supply.

Note that Big 3 inventories (crude oil, gasoline and diesel) are all below the 5-year average and we are at the beginning of the high demand period for transportation fuels.

IEA "Oil Market Report" of April should be out this week. I expect them to raise their global demand forecast for 2024 by quite a bit. EIA already has.
More impactful will be if IEA lowers total OECD petroleum inventories.