Each month OPEC publishes their view of the global oil market. It is usually more accurate than IEA's monthly "Oil Market Report".
Below is a summary of OPEC's report that was released yesterday, April 10. Highlighted in blue are what I believe to be key stats.
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Demand
2024: The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains broadly unchanged from last month's assessment of 2.25 mb/d. Slight adjustments were made to the 1Q24 data, with a slight upward revision in OECD Europe and some non-OECD data, reflecting better-than-expected performance in oil demand data. This increase was offset by a downward revision to Africa in 1Q24 and the Middle East in the first three quarters. Accordingly, the OECD is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
2025: In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
Supply
2024: The non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, revised down from the previous month's assessment by about 0.1 mb/d. In 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway.
2025: The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2025 is expected at 1.1 mb/d, revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month's assessment. The growth is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. The term "non-DoC liquids supply" is established to better reflect the current breakdown of global liquids supply into DoC and non-DoC.
Commercial stock movements
Preliminary February 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks moved down by 25.7 mb, m-o-m. At 2,733 mb, they were 187 mb below the 2015-2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 19.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 45.3 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,342 mb in February, 106 mb lower than the 2015-2019 average. OECD total product stocks in February stood at 1,391 mb, 81 mb below the 2015-2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks dropped by 0.4 days, m-o-m, in February 2024 to stand at 59.8 days. This is 2.8 days less than the 2015-2019 average.
Balance of supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude is projected to stand at about 43.2 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 44.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.8 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 is projected to stand at about 28.5 mb/d, which is around 1.2 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 29.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.4 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level.
March production based on secondary sources
Total 26.604M bpd, +3K bpd m/m
Algeria 909K bpd, unchanged m/m
Congo 250K bpd, +5K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 59K bpd, +6K bpd m/m
Gabon 230K bpd, +15K bpd m/m
Iran 3.188M bpd, +28K bpd m/m
Iraq 4.194M bpd, (23K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.446M bpd, +12K bpd m/m
Libya 1.161M bpd, (2K) bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.398M bpd, (38K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 9.037M bpd, +20K bpd m/m
UAE 2.925M bpd, (6K) bpd m/m
Venezuela 809K bpd, (14K) bpd m/m
March production directly communicated to OPEC by its members
Algeria 907K bpd, +1K bpd m/m
Congo 254K bpd, +9K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 60K bpd, +14K bpd m/m
Iraq 3.903M bpd, (89K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.413M bpd, unchanged m/m
Libya 1.236M bpd, +63K bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.231M bpd, (92K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 8.973M bpd, (39K) bpd m/m
UAE 2.918M bpd, +4K bpd m/m
Venezuela 874K bpd, (3K) bpd m/m
OPEC's Monthly Report
OPEC's Monthly Report
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: OPEC's Monthly Report
Hello Dan, talk going around that Biden will tap the SPR, Strategic Political Reserve, ahead of the upcoming 2024
election to keep fuel costs down. If so, will that necessarily "tank/drive down" share prices of energy stocks?
Combination of all the "bat crazy jokers" like Iran, Houthis, Ukes vs Russia, possible GOM hurricanes, lack of investment in energy due to regs, etc. makes me think we will live in "interesting times" soon, regardless.
election to keep fuel costs down. If so, will that necessarily "tank/drive down" share prices of energy stocks?
Combination of all the "bat crazy jokers" like Iran, Houthis, Ukes vs Russia, possible GOM hurricanes, lack of investment in energy due to regs, etc. makes me think we will live in "interesting times" soon, regardless.
Re: OPEC's Monthly Report
In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA came out and said:
“This month we revised the 2022 global liquid fuels consumption data available in our International Energy Statistics, increasing our assessment of global oil consumption that year by nearly 0.8 million barrels per day compared to last month’s STEO. The historic data serves as a baseline for our short-term forecasts, affecting our view of energy markets this year and next. This month’s revision to historic data, as well as current market dynamics, led us to increase our forecasts for global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025 between 0.4 million b/d and 0.5 million b/d in both years.”
This means that the EIA now expects global liquid fuels demand to average 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024 and 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025.
Bill:
I'm sure that Team Biden is in panic mode because they know that rising gasoline prices make Joe's re-election even more unlikely. If they do drain the SPR for political reasons they will take a lot of heat for it, but they don't seem to care about national security. WTI is once again testing the $85 support level.
“This month we revised the 2022 global liquid fuels consumption data available in our International Energy Statistics, increasing our assessment of global oil consumption that year by nearly 0.8 million barrels per day compared to last month’s STEO. The historic data serves as a baseline for our short-term forecasts, affecting our view of energy markets this year and next. This month’s revision to historic data, as well as current market dynamics, led us to increase our forecasts for global oil consumption in 2024 and 2025 between 0.4 million b/d and 0.5 million b/d in both years.”
This means that the EIA now expects global liquid fuels demand to average 102.9 million barrels per day in 2024 and 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025.
Bill:
I'm sure that Team Biden is in panic mode because they know that rising gasoline prices make Joe's re-election even more unlikely. If they do drain the SPR for political reasons they will take a lot of heat for it, but they don't seem to care about national security. WTI is once again testing the $85 support level.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: OPEC's Monthly Report
Note from Keith Kohl this morning:
If there has been one catalyst that I’ve told you would rear its ugly head this year, it’s the tighter supply/demand balance in the market. This is especially crucial to understand considering the market has been overstating supply and understating demand for so long.
This week, Vitol Group reported that global oil demand will grow by 1.9 million barrels per day this year — that’s half a million barrels per day higher than the International Energy Agency’s forecast.
It’s a recipe for $100/bbl oil that cannot be ignored, and certainly enough for the market to shrug off a bearish weekly oil report out of the EIA yesterday.
A couple of days ago, I told you about the last oil trade I’m making before the summer starts heating up and that oil prices will start threatening $100/bbl again. As I mentioned then, the summer driving season hasn’t struck just yet, and oil has felt a little overbought recently.
However, it appears that any potential sell-off may not happen.
If you haven’t realized it yet, this is a serious problem considering that supply growth outside of OPEC+ is constrained; strong demand growth means that they can put more oil on the market to keep prices within a comfortable range.
You know just as well as I do that this places an even greater value on those hidden domestic oil drillers that can successfully boost production going forward.
If there has been one catalyst that I’ve told you would rear its ugly head this year, it’s the tighter supply/demand balance in the market. This is especially crucial to understand considering the market has been overstating supply and understating demand for so long.
This week, Vitol Group reported that global oil demand will grow by 1.9 million barrels per day this year — that’s half a million barrels per day higher than the International Energy Agency’s forecast.
It’s a recipe for $100/bbl oil that cannot be ignored, and certainly enough for the market to shrug off a bearish weekly oil report out of the EIA yesterday.
A couple of days ago, I told you about the last oil trade I’m making before the summer starts heating up and that oil prices will start threatening $100/bbl again. As I mentioned then, the summer driving season hasn’t struck just yet, and oil has felt a little overbought recently.
However, it appears that any potential sell-off may not happen.
If you haven’t realized it yet, this is a serious problem considering that supply growth outside of OPEC+ is constrained; strong demand growth means that they can put more oil on the market to keep prices within a comfortable range.
You know just as well as I do that this places an even greater value on those hidden domestic oil drillers that can successfully boost production going forward.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: OPEC's Monthly Report
The drumbeat for oil nationalization will return this summer. The leftists in government(those behind the Biden paywall) play for keeps. This opinion from two years ago only the mantra will not be to nationalize for climate change and green energy but for lowering gas and energy prices..to save Democracy!
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3536866-why-we-must-nationalize-big-oil/
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/3536866-why-we-must-nationalize-big-oil/