IEA monthly Oil Market Report - Apr 12

[dan_s]

IEA continues to slant their reports to lower oil demand growth in 2024 than what EIA and OPEC are reporting. However, the global oil market remains very tight with OECD Petroleum Inventories 65 million bbls below the 5-year average. Keep in mind that demand for oil-based products is higher than the 5-year average that includes the big dip in demand in 2020 due to the pandemic.
The oil price is up more than $2.00 this morning because the shorts are covering with increasing likelihood that Iran will launch an attack of Israel.
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> World oil demand growth continues to lose momentum with 1Q24 growth of 1.6 mb/d, 120 kb/d below our previous forecast due to exceptionally weak OECD deliveries. With the post-Covid rebound now largely complete, and vehicle efficiencies and an expanding EV fleet acting as further drags on oil demand, growth in 2024 and 2025 slows to 1.2 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively.

> Non-OPEC+, led by the US, is set to drive world supply growth through 2025. For 2024, global output is forecast to rise by 770 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ production will expand by 1.6 mb/d, while OPEC+ supply could fall 820 kb/d if voluntary cuts remain in place. In 2025, global growth could rise to 1.6 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ is forecast to lead gains, rising 1.4 mb/d, while OPEC+ output could increase by 220 kb/d if curbs stay in place.

> Global refinery throughputs are forecast to rise by 1 mb/d to 83.3 mb/d in 2024, 160 kb/d less than in last month’s Report, on lower Russian runs, unplanned outages in Europe and still-tepid Chinese activity. Throughputs are projected to increase by 830 kb/d to 84.2 mb/d in 2025, as non-OECD growth of 1.1 mb/d more than offsets declines in the OECD.

> Global observed oil inventories rose by 43.3 mb in February to a seven-month apex with oil on water at its highest level in 15 months. By contrast, on land stocks fell to their lowest since at least 2016. OECD industry stocks decreased by 7.6 mb in February, remaining 65.1 mb below the five-year average. Early data indicate that they built by 22 mb in March.

> ICE Brent crude futures hit a six-month high of $90/bbl in early April amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, attacks on Russian refineries and an extension of OPEC+ outputs cuts through June. Crude’s price strength was underpinned by bullish investor sentiment, with exchange net fund positions in Brent rising to their highest in a year

Benchmark crude oil prices continued their upward trajectory in March and early April, as heightened geopolitical tensions coincided with the prospect of a tighter supply-demand balance through the remainder of the year. Brent crude futures breached the symbolic $90/bbl threshold on 5 April, up nearly $8/bbl from early March, reaching the highest level since October 2023, amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. Russian refinery outages added to product market unease, while OPEC+ put pressure on some countries to increase compliance with agreed voluntary production cuts through 2Q24.

Escalating oil supply security concerns are set against a backdrop of solid global oil demand growth of 1.6 mb/d in the first quarter and a more upbeat outlook for the global economy. World oil demand growth has nevertheless been revised down by roughly 100 kb/d since last month’s Report, to 1.2 mb/d, following exceptionally weak deliveries in the OECD at the start of the year. Our newly-released 2025 forecast in this month’s Report shows the pace of expansion will decelerate further, to 1.1 mb/d next year as the post-Covid 19 rebound has run its course. Non-OECD countries dominate the outlook, with forecast demand set to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2024 and 1.2 mb/d in 2025. By contrast, consumption in the OECD will decline by 60 kb/d in both years. China continues to lead the growth even as its share of the global increase slumps from 79% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 and 27% next year.

Sustained output curbs by the OPEC+ alliance mean that non-OPEC+ producers, led by the Americas, will continue to drive world oil supply growth through 2025. OPEC+ market share has already slipped to all-time lows after the alliance removed close to 2 mb/d of supply from the market since the end of 2022, while non-OPEC+ ramped up by nearly the same amount. That trend looks set to continue in 2024, when non-OPEC+ boosts output by a further 1.6 mb/d. OPEC+ supply is projected to fall by 820 kb/d, provided cuts are maintained through the second half of the year. In 2025, global oil supply is forecast to increase by 1.6 mb/d to a new record of 104.5 mb/d, as non-OPEC+ lead gains for a third straight year, rising by 1.4 mb/d.

For context, the additional volumes from the United States, Brazil, Guyana and Canada alone could come close to meeting world oil demand growth for this year and next. These four countries are set to once again produce at records-highs, adding a combined 1.2 mb/d in 2024 and 1 mb/d in 2025. Although momentum slows in the United States, it still ranks as the world’s largest source of supply growth in 2024 and 2025, adding 650 kb/d and 540 kb/d, respectively.

Robust production from non-OPEC+ coupled with a projected slowdown in demand growth will lower the call on OPEC+ crude by roughly 300 kb/d in 2025, to an average 41.5 mb/d. If the bloc were to produce in line with that call, effective spare capacity could top 6 mb/d – excluding the Covid-19 period – its largest ever supply buffer.