Go to the 43rd minute of this video to understand how much electricity AI will require.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfTU5LA_kw8
The entire video is three hours long, but very thought provoking. They discuss some very deep stuff, including how AI could evolve into a "God".
How much electricity will AI require?
How much electricity will AI require?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: How much electricity will AI require?
I listened to the full podcast during a long drive this past weekend (doing my role in keeping up gasoline demand ha).
That said, I'm not 100% convinced AI will play a big role in electricity demand. I think it is in the cards, yes, but not a given.
What about AI specifically is electricity demanding? The upfront creation of it, or the usage of it after the fact?
My thoughts are the whole "Machine Learning" process is the electricity hog here. It is the process most AI systems/models go through initially to analyze a massive pool of information to make the pattern matching connections needed to actually be useful. If you are building an AI system that is based on very concrete factual data, then I picture this process as more of a one and done deal. But, I suppose some AI models will be constantly evolving which will require constant computing in the background.
My gut instinct is that a lot of end users to some AI system will be using it in a way that is more adjacent to their existing energy consumption rather than additional to their current consumption. I could be picturing this wrong. I guess this more depends on how much AI is built on existing tech versus something entirely new.
How many companies are going to be developing their own AI? And will it stick?
Is it just going to be the select big tech companies? I know the intended user is everyone and everything. But who actually will be developing their own AI? The main part I'm skeptical of is it seems every single tech company is trying to do AI this and AI that, but who is to say 9 out of 10 of these applications serve no real purpose and will just be silently sunset in a few years. Or who is to say some of these actually work? Amazon has been building these fancy grocery stores with no cashier nor self checkout required. You simply scan your amazon ID on entry then the cameras watch what you grab and put back then bill you as you walk out. How did they do it? Supposedly with cameras and AI tech? Nope, a bunch of Indian guys watching you on the camera deciding "hey did he pick out the snack size or the family size?" LOL! (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/10/amazon-ai-cashier-less-shops-humans-technology)
I do think at this point electricity demand from Cryptocurrency Mining is a little bit more fixed and predictable to forecast than AI. It does seem to use a lot of electricity today. There are those fun headlines how bitcoin mining is using more electricity globally than the entirety of some 3rd world countries. However, it may seem like Cryptocurrency mining might be moving in the direction of "Proof of Stake" than "Proof of Work". "Proof of Work" was the original way to do Cryptocurrency that required more on computing power to maintain the integrity of the network rather than wealth or a "stake" in the network.
I do remain bullish on long term electricity growth completely AI agnostic
1) India's population just surpassed China's. Their standard of living and economic development seem to be lagging China's, but I suspect they will begin to catch up.
2) China has grown, but still has a fair population size without consistent access to electricity. I think their is a lot more growth baked into the cake here.
3) We are increasingly putting more technical devices into our hands and into our children's hands at younger and younger ages. AI or not.
4) EVs. Even if they don't grow as much as the climate wackos think. I do think a little bit of EV growth goes a long way for electricity demand.
I'm a tech contrarian so I have a little bit of bias here. I just think the current day sentiment towards AI is a out of proportion, but there is probably more there than I want to think there is. I do definitely remain cautious on what Good and Bad forces are behind AI but that is a separate discussion. Sounds like VTLE is using some AI applications to their benefit and hey that is probably a good moral use of AI. Not to sound like a complete nut, but a little scared they are going to throw some AI gender affirming entity into public schools or some other nonsense like this.
My two cents.
That said, I'm not 100% convinced AI will play a big role in electricity demand. I think it is in the cards, yes, but not a given.
What about AI specifically is electricity demanding? The upfront creation of it, or the usage of it after the fact?
My thoughts are the whole "Machine Learning" process is the electricity hog here. It is the process most AI systems/models go through initially to analyze a massive pool of information to make the pattern matching connections needed to actually be useful. If you are building an AI system that is based on very concrete factual data, then I picture this process as more of a one and done deal. But, I suppose some AI models will be constantly evolving which will require constant computing in the background.
My gut instinct is that a lot of end users to some AI system will be using it in a way that is more adjacent to their existing energy consumption rather than additional to their current consumption. I could be picturing this wrong. I guess this more depends on how much AI is built on existing tech versus something entirely new.
How many companies are going to be developing their own AI? And will it stick?
Is it just going to be the select big tech companies? I know the intended user is everyone and everything. But who actually will be developing their own AI? The main part I'm skeptical of is it seems every single tech company is trying to do AI this and AI that, but who is to say 9 out of 10 of these applications serve no real purpose and will just be silently sunset in a few years. Or who is to say some of these actually work? Amazon has been building these fancy grocery stores with no cashier nor self checkout required. You simply scan your amazon ID on entry then the cameras watch what you grab and put back then bill you as you walk out. How did they do it? Supposedly with cameras and AI tech? Nope, a bunch of Indian guys watching you on the camera deciding "hey did he pick out the snack size or the family size?" LOL! (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/apr/10/amazon-ai-cashier-less-shops-humans-technology)
I do think at this point electricity demand from Cryptocurrency Mining is a little bit more fixed and predictable to forecast than AI. It does seem to use a lot of electricity today. There are those fun headlines how bitcoin mining is using more electricity globally than the entirety of some 3rd world countries. However, it may seem like Cryptocurrency mining might be moving in the direction of "Proof of Stake" than "Proof of Work". "Proof of Work" was the original way to do Cryptocurrency that required more on computing power to maintain the integrity of the network rather than wealth or a "stake" in the network.
I do remain bullish on long term electricity growth completely AI agnostic
1) India's population just surpassed China's. Their standard of living and economic development seem to be lagging China's, but I suspect they will begin to catch up.
2) China has grown, but still has a fair population size without consistent access to electricity. I think their is a lot more growth baked into the cake here.
3) We are increasingly putting more technical devices into our hands and into our children's hands at younger and younger ages. AI or not.
4) EVs. Even if they don't grow as much as the climate wackos think. I do think a little bit of EV growth goes a long way for electricity demand.
I'm a tech contrarian so I have a little bit of bias here. I just think the current day sentiment towards AI is a out of proportion, but there is probably more there than I want to think there is. I do definitely remain cautious on what Good and Bad forces are behind AI but that is a separate discussion. Sounds like VTLE is using some AI applications to their benefit and hey that is probably a good moral use of AI. Not to sound like a complete nut, but a little scared they are going to throw some AI gender affirming entity into public schools or some other nonsense like this.
My two cents.
Re: How much electricity will AI require?
If Ai says get rid of Congress they are useless, will they listen?
Re: How much electricity will AI require?
That is when they put AI into a time out.
Microsoft had to do it before in 2016:
https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist
Microsoft had to do it before in 2016:
https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist