Energy Prospectus

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
increased by 7.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending
components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.7 million
barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels from last week and are 14%
above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories
increased by 7.9 million barrels last week.

Crude is now imploding, down 2.50 as I write this, down 4.50 for the week

WTI and Brent were both impacted by the builds on API/EIA numbers. However, the uncertainty in the market relative to the Fed announcement today added some additional hot sauce. I look for a pull back above 80. Lower is better relative to getting a rate cut out of the FED for July and/or September.

I found the import export numbers interesting because our imports over exports were much higher than usual.... I am not an expert so this is just a surface observation.
Cheers.

Inventory builds caused by higher net imports are not an increase in the global oil supply. They are just moving oil from ships into onshore tanks. Note that all of the Big 3 inventories remain below normal for this time of year.
The global oil market remains tight.

Thanks Dan for the insight of impact from imports. Clarifies the supply delusion.

Re: Unexpected crude oil inventory build report by EIA on Wednesday morning.
"This crude build was not only surprising because a draw was expected, but also because of its large size. Prices declined by an additional 2% on the news. It looks like current inventories are following that of 2019 as shown in Figure (1) below. Most of the reported increase was caused by a large decline in exports and a decline in refinery utilization. Crude inventories should start being withdrawn soon and both refinery utilization and exports should increase." - ANAS ALHAJJI on MAY 1