Energy Prospectus

As I sit here looking at the daily chart for the August WTI contract it appears that oil is drifting up off strong support at $78/bbl, which it touched last Thursday and Friday. Today's close over $80 was a welcome sight.

The next goal is to get back into the $82-$86 range which is where it was trading for the first three weeks of June. IMO a close over $82/bbl would be a very good sign.

Keep in mind that Q2 is the low point for crude oil demand EVERY YEAR.

Per IEA's report dated 6-13-2012: "World refinery demand for crude oil is set to surge seasonally by 2.8 million bbls per day between April's low and August as maintenance winds down."

Last year, oil briefly touched $78/bbl in the first week of October. From there it went to $104/bbl by December 31st and reached $110/bbl in March.

Tomorrow's natural gas storage report will be interesting. There is a lot of gas being burned in the Texas peaking plants this week. It is very HOT in H-Town.

WTI down today on uncertainty related to Obamacare's impact on the economy. Fundamentals still strong for rebound in the 3rd quarter.
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Brent, the second-worst performer between April and June in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI commodity index, is forecast to rebound to an average $114.50 a barrel in the third quarter, according to the median estimate of 32 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. BNP Paribas SA, Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc predict $110, $115 and $121, respectively. Prices dipped as low as $88.49 last week in London and rose as high as $93.85 today.

Full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-2 ... ce-08.html

Iran takes center stage next week.

“Implementation of full sanctions” will cut Iran’s exports by 1 million barrels a day in the second half compared with last year’s levels, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said on June 13. The country exported about 1.5 million barrels a day in May, according to the IEA.

“The oil market will move into a seasonally-adjusted deficit as sanctions go into effect on July 1,” Jeffrey Currie and David Greely, commodity analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., wrote in a report on June 11.