crk

[Fraser921]

Well respected analyst, Paul Sankey took CRK to task;

part of what he said;

Current CEO of Comstock Jay Allison, became CEO at the start of Bill Clinton’s second term. For younger readers, that’s 1996, in case all you know are Clinton’s Epstein photos and the idea he was once President, ‘nuff said.

Combine Allison’s 28 years at the top, with the CFO’s 11 years in his seat, and you have, by far, the longest combined tenure of any CEO+CFO management team in E&P. These two have navigated Comstock to a -91% total return over the last 10 years. It’s not what you know, it’s who you know.

Seriously though, this is great work if you can get it. Allison made $10m last year and the CFO $6mm as the stock tanked >30% and underperformed the peer group by 37

You can read the article here

https://sankeyresearch.com/2024/08/01/morning-1996-called-and-we-are-not-picking-up/

Relative to their $100mm cash flow in 2Q24, the $2.9 billion in debt looks… daunting. Do not fret, however, because CRK’s Debt/EBITDAX at 3.4x is still below the financial covenant max of 3.5x. And anyway, they will get waivers, because banks want fees for waiving covenants more than they want CRK’s high cost Western Haynesville extension

Don’t fret though, for according to Jay Allison “the future for the company has never ever been brighter.” “Never ever”, might be the right semantic for this name.

The trick, though, according to this Jay as lead strategist is “managing through these times with natural gas prices at all-time lows on an inflation-adjusted basis. So, now, it’s how you manage the present to shine the brightest when the rebound occurs.“

The answer is provided de facto: outspend cash flows running more rigs than AR and EQT combined, in order to hold an asset whose value above grazing land is questionable.

you can create a trial account and read it

[dan_s]

CRK is a pure gasser. Only those of you that think U.S. natural gas is going to $4.00 should consider it AND there are much better gassers out there (AR, CTRA, EQT and RRC).

Jerry Jones owns the majority of the outstanding stock, and he is long-term bullish on natural gas. Jerry's determination to back CRK is the only plus, until natural gas prices rebound to over $3.00.

Frasier: No point in beating this one.

[ChuckGeb]

I have only glimpsed at the CRK slides to date but what stood out the most is they refer to the Western Haynesville as 450,000 acre “”Western Haynesville Exploratatory Play”. Yikes! After over a year they locked up 450,000 acres for exploration. Full speed ahead.