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Permian Resources (PR) Update - Aug 30

Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2024 9:24 am
by dan_s
Comments below are from Keith Kohl's "Energy Investor" newsletter, which I have been getting for over ten years.

Permian Resources Corp. is an independent oil and gas company that is focused on
the acquisition, optimization, and development of high-return oil and natural gas
properties. The company’s assets are located in the core of the Delaware portion of the
Permian Basin.

Recent News

Permian Resources released its second quarter results a few weeks ago.
One thing we know for certain is that Permian Resources has experienced significant
year-over-year growth, with net revenues from oil and gas sales more than doubling
to $1.2 million during Q2. I’ll note that this occurred with an average sales price of
around $80 per barrel of oil. In other words, we didn’t need to see a massive price
spike take place.

Despite this growth, the company did underwhelm analysts’ expectations after posting
non-GAAP earnings of $0.36 per share.

Again, it’s about doing more with less. During the second quarter, the company
successfully lowered its controllable cash costs by 8%, compared to the previous
quarter.

Meanwhile, oil production during the quarter was 152,900 barrels per day — a 1%
increase compared to the first quarter of the year. In total, production stood at 338,800
boepd during the quarter — a 6% jump over the previous quarter.

At the end of July, the company inked a deal with Occidental to purchase
approximately 29,500 net acres, roughly 9,900 net royalty acres, and about 15,000
boepd in the core area of the Delaware Basin for $817.5 million.

These assets offset the company’s current position in Reeves County, Texas and Eddy
Country, New Mexico, adding more than 200 gross operated drilling locations have
already been identified. Along with the acreage, the deal also includes a fully integrated
midstream system of more than 100 miles of operated oil and gas gathering pipeline,
as well as complimentary water infrastructure, a recycling facility, frac ponds and
water wells.

We should see this deal close at some point in the next few months.

Permian Resources (NYSE: PR) is rated a “Buy” under $20.00.

Re: Permian Resources (PR) Update - Aug 30

Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2024 9:54 am
by dan_s
I have lowered the oil & gas prices used in my 2H 2024 forecasts as follows:

Q3 2024: WTI oil from $80 to $75 and HH natural gas from $2.25 to $2.00
Q4 2024: WTI oil from $82.50 to $80 and HH natural gas from $2.75 to $2.50

For 2025 my oil and ngas prices remain at $80 WTI and $3.50 for HH ngas.

Assuming we have a normal winter, I expect HH ngas to average $3.25 in 1H 2025 and then ramp up to average $3.75 in 2H 2025. < Exxon's Golden Pass LNG facility Trains 1 & 2 are now expected to on line in Q4 2025.

Based on my new oil & gas price deck, my current valuation of PR adjusts from $23.50 to $23.00 < PR's production has been consistently beating their guidance, so there is upside to my valuation. TipRanks' Q3 forecast is higher than my forecast.

Permian Resources is an "Aggressive Growth" company that does pay a decent dividend of $0.21/quarter for annual yield of ~5.8% based on today's share price. Production growth has been 56.6% in 2022, 103.5% in 2023 and they are on pace for 71.6% production growth in 2024. Plus, the Company has a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in the Delaware Basin.