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Sweet 16 Valuation Updates - August 31
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2024 10:20 am
by dan_s
This weekend I will be updating all of the Sweet 16 stock valuation models using my lowered oil & gas price deck for 2H 2024. The FANG and PR models have already been updated and posted to the EPG website.
The valuations should not change too much since I had large "cushions" in my Adjusted Operating Cash Flow calculations for 2H 2024.
Re: Sweet 16 Valuation Updates - August 31
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2024 11:51 am
by ChuckGeb
What are the lowered process for H2? I missed out if you previously discussed.
Re: Sweet 16 Valuation Updates - August 31
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2024 2:09 pm
by dan_s
I am lowering the 2H 2024 oil & gas prices in my models. All 16 forecast models have now been updated.
WTI oil
Q3: lowered by $5 to $75/bbl
Q4: lowered by $2.50 to $80/bbl
HH ngas
Q3: lowered by $0.25 to $2.00
Q4: lowered by $0.25 to $2.50
No change for 2025 forecasts. I'm using $80 WTI and $3.50 HH ngas
For each company I make adjustments for their hedges and regional price differentials. There is hope for better natural gas prices in the Permian Basin in Q4 because the Matterhorn pipeline is expected to be online by end of September. Venture Global's big LNG export facility in Plaquemine, LA is also expected to be online by end of September. It should give all natural gas prices a boost.
All of the forecast models are macro driven Excel spreadsheets. You can download them and change the oil, gas and NGL prices for each future period to see how it impacts each company's revenues, net income, cash flow and stock valuation. Taking time to learn how to use the models is a good use of your time.