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Israel to attack Iran soon - Oct 23

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 5:02 pm
by dan_s
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant galvanized Israeli Air Force crews on Wednesday ahead of the country’s looming strike against Iran in retaliation for the barrage of missiles the Islamic Republic launched at Israel earlier this month.

Gallant declared that Israel’s response would show the world that anyone who attacks the Jewish nation will “pay a heavy price.”

“In my conversation with them I emphasized, after we attack Iran,” he said, “everyone will understand our might, the process of preparation and training. Any enemy that tries to harm the State of Israel will pay a heavy price."

A week ago, Gallant said that the strike “will be lethal, precise, and above all, surprising,” and that Iran “will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.”

The big fear in the Persian Gulf region is whether Israel will attack Iran’s oil facilities, as some Middle Eastern countries worry their own facilities may come under attack if Iran deems them complicit in Israel’s retaliation. As a result, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have closed off airspace to Israel in an effort to stay out of any widening conflict.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told the United States that Israel only plans to attack Iran’s military sites and not its nuclear and oil facilities, according to the Washington Post. President Joe Biden has expressed his opposition to the targeting of Iranian nuclear sites, adding that he would be “thinking about other alternatives than striking oil fields” if put in the same position.

If Israel does attack Iran’s oil fields, China may suffer economically as they are Iran’s biggest oil customer. Gulf sources warned that attacking Iran’s oil could also hurt “Harris’s chances in the election,” according to Reuters, and send the price of oil as high as $120 per barrel.

Online betting platform Polymarket, one of the most popular sites used to bet on world events, allows its users to place wagers on if and whether Israel will strike Iran. Bettors are currently 88% certain Israel will retaliate before the end of the year, but 73% were sure it would come sometime after this Sunday. The odds give Israel a 46% chance to strike before the end of October.

Re: Israel to attack Iran soon - Oct 23

Posted: Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:01 pm
by aja57
Doomberg seems to think it won't happen. Interesting post.

https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/october-surprise?r=oc969&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web