Energy Prospectus

Due to the Veterans Day holiday on Monday, the EIA weekly reports for oil and natural gas will be release on Thursday, November 14.

HFI is forecasting that crude oil inventories will increase by ~5 million barrels but remain near the bottom of the five-year range. Hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico has reduced oil & gas production and impacted imports and exports of oil and refined products.

It is normal for crude oil inventories to increase this time of year.

Celsius Energy's forecast is that U.S. natural gas inventories will increase by ~55 Bcf during the two weeks ending November 15, with the first draws from storage coming the week ending November 22.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 8, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million barrels per day during the week ending November 8, 2024, which was 175 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 91.4% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, increased by 269 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 0.2% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 628 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 108 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 429.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels from last week and are 9% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.5 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.8 million barrels a day, up by 1.8% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 0.6% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 4.0% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 4.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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U.S. and OECD petroleum inventories are near the bottom of the 5-year average. The paradigm that the global oil market is oversupplied is not supported by facts above.
"Global oil inventories plunged by 47.5 mb in September, to their lowest level since January, led by a sharp draw in OECD oil products and non-OECD crude oil stocks. OECD industry stocks fell by 36.4 mb to 2 799 mb, 95.3 mb below the five-year average. Provisional data suggest total global stocks decreased for a fifth consecutive month in October." - Per IEA Oil Market Report released 11-14-2024