EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 14
Posted: Thu Nov 14, 2024 3:45 pm
Working gas in storage was 3,974 Bcf as of Friday, November 8, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 42 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 158 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 228 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,746 Bcf.
At 3,974 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
There is 1 more week in the storage Refill Season. Current forecast is that it will be a 12 Bcf increase for the week ending November 15th, so storge heading into the winter heating season will be ~3,986 Bcf. That is high, but LNG export capacity in Q1 2025 will be 5 Bcfpd higher than it was in Q1 2024 because the large export facility at Freeport (~2 Bcfpd) was offline last winter. Three new LNG export facilities with ~3.3 Bcfpd of capacity should all be online in January.
5 Bcfpd of additional demand in Q1 should wipe out the surplus to the 5-year average by the end of February and just normal winter weather (for a change) could push storage into a deficit in March. It is up to Mother Nature now.
The weather pattern is moving the cold air eastward. A week from today our friends in Dallas should see overnight lows near freezing.
My WAG is that we see the first triple digit draw from storage the week ending December 6th.
This represents a net increase of 42 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 158 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 228 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,746 Bcf.
At 3,974 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
There is 1 more week in the storage Refill Season. Current forecast is that it will be a 12 Bcf increase for the week ending November 15th, so storge heading into the winter heating season will be ~3,986 Bcf. That is high, but LNG export capacity in Q1 2025 will be 5 Bcfpd higher than it was in Q1 2024 because the large export facility at Freeport (~2 Bcfpd) was offline last winter. Three new LNG export facilities with ~3.3 Bcfpd of capacity should all be online in January.
5 Bcfpd of additional demand in Q1 should wipe out the surplus to the 5-year average by the end of February and just normal winter weather (for a change) could push storage into a deficit in March. It is up to Mother Nature now.
The weather pattern is moving the cold air eastward. A week from today our friends in Dallas should see overnight lows near freezing.
My WAG is that we see the first triple digit draw from storage the week ending December 6th.