Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 22
Posted: Fri Nov 22, 2024 11:20 am
Trading Economics:
Oil:
WTI crude futures rose above $71.1 per barrel on Friday, driving prices to a weekly gain of over 5%, the most in two months, amid signs of US strong demand and further supply risks. < The bounce off technical support at $67 is significant.
> The US S&P PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking the fastest private sector growth since April 2022, lifting the demand outlook from the world’s top fuel consumer. < Trump's Pro-America Agenda will send PMI much higher in 2025.
> Meanwhile, China unveiled measures to boost foreign trade, raising expectations for higher energy product imports. < Europe's economy is no longer important to global oil demand.
> However, weaker-than-expected flash PMI data from the Eurozone highlighted deteriorating business conditions in the region in November.
> In turn, risks to fuel exports from Russia emerged after Ukraine launched its second Western-supplied missile into Russia, driving the latter to respond by firing its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine.
> Markets are now eyeing the OPEC+ meeting on December 1st, with speculation that output increases may be delayed once again.
Natural Gas:
US natural gas prices fell below $3.10/MMBtu after touching a one-year high of $3.35 on November 21st amid an ample output next year.
> The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to raise output for the first time since the pandemic next year amid higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG.
> Still, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November as forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season.
> Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output.
> In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast.
> In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.
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I have a new detailed report that shows that if we have a normal winter, natural gas prices will need to go much higher next summer to get upstream companies to drill a lot more gas wells to meet demand for U.S. natural gas in 2025. The Bidding War for natural gas supply in August, 2022 that sent U.S. natural gas prices over $9.00 has a good chance to happen again in Q3 2025. Send me an email if you want to read the report. I can't post it here. dmsteffens@comcast.net
Oil:
WTI crude futures rose above $71.1 per barrel on Friday, driving prices to a weekly gain of over 5%, the most in two months, amid signs of US strong demand and further supply risks. < The bounce off technical support at $67 is significant.
> The US S&P PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking the fastest private sector growth since April 2022, lifting the demand outlook from the world’s top fuel consumer. < Trump's Pro-America Agenda will send PMI much higher in 2025.
> Meanwhile, China unveiled measures to boost foreign trade, raising expectations for higher energy product imports. < Europe's economy is no longer important to global oil demand.
> However, weaker-than-expected flash PMI data from the Eurozone highlighted deteriorating business conditions in the region in November.
> In turn, risks to fuel exports from Russia emerged after Ukraine launched its second Western-supplied missile into Russia, driving the latter to respond by firing its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine.
> Markets are now eyeing the OPEC+ meeting on December 1st, with speculation that output increases may be delayed once again.
Natural Gas:
US natural gas prices fell below $3.10/MMBtu after touching a one-year high of $3.35 on November 21st amid an ample output next year.
> The EIA noted that US drillers are expected to raise output for the first time since the pandemic next year amid higher export capacity and global demand for US LNG.
> Still, prices remained nearly 20% higher in November as forecasts of colder weather expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season.
> Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output.
> In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast.
> In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.
---------------------
I have a new detailed report that shows that if we have a normal winter, natural gas prices will need to go much higher next summer to get upstream companies to drill a lot more gas wells to meet demand for U.S. natural gas in 2025. The Bidding War for natural gas supply in August, 2022 that sent U.S. natural gas prices over $9.00 has a good chance to happen again in Q3 2025. Send me an email if you want to read the report. I can't post it here. dmsteffens@comcast.net