OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast

[dan_s]

OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, amid a slowness in economic growth in key markets such as China and India.

The group now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down 210,000 bpd from its previous forecast. For 2025, demand is projected to grow by 1.4 million bpd, a 90,000 bpd downward revision.

On the supply front, countries outside OPEC’s Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) are expected to ramp up production, particularly in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Norway, potentially exerting pressure on prices.

OPEC maintained its global economic growth forecasts at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025 but revised its outlook for the United States slightly higher, projecting 2.8% growth in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025, supported by strong expansion in the second half of 2024.

China's growth estimates remain steady at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025, while India’s growth outlook is unchanged at 6.8% for 2024 and 6.3% for 2025.

The revisions to demand forecasts come amid uneven global economic growth and debates over energy transition. With rising supply from non-OPEC producers, market dynamics may shift further, influencing oil prices in the coming years. < It is a False Paradigm that there will be a "transition" away from oil. We should quit calling it a "transition". Wind and Solar are just small "additions" to the ever growing increasing demand for energy.