Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 13, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending December 13, 2024, which was 48 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 91.8% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, increased by 665 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 2.1% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 755 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 164 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories:

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 421.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.

> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels from last week and are 7% above the five year average for this time of year.

>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels a day, up by 1.3% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 2.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 4.8% from, the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 11.6% compared with the same four week period last year.

Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures rose to over $71 per barrel on Wednesday, extending gains from morning trading and approaching their highest in one month amid fresh developments that jeopardize the view of ample supply.
> Data from the EIA showed that crude oil stocks in the US fell by nearly 1 million barrels in the second week of December, extending the 1.4-million-barrel draw from the previous week.
> Additionally, the same report showed that US exports rose to 1.8 million barrels in the period, the most since July.
> In turn, other reports indicated that Kazakhstan intends to comply with the prolonged oil cuts mandated by OPEC+ for next year, reversing from previous signals that it would instead raise output to the original level of 190 thousand barrels per day. This added to the signal of other members adhering to an extension of output cuts, namely the UAE.
> Still, expectations for non-OPEC+ members, namely the US, Canada, and Brazil, to deliver ample output limited gains. < I have seen several reports that Brazil's oil production will fall short of IEA's projections.

Dan, big difference between API yesterday for a draw of 4.9 million barrels and EIA at .9, makes one question the efficacy of sampling and estimating.

HFI Research:

December US Oil Production Is Disappointing To The Downside And What This Means For 2025
HFI Research
Dec 18

I wanted to wait for this week's EIA oil storage report before I came to a conclusion on December US oil production. And with this week's data, it appears clear to me that US oil production will be coming in below consensus expectations exiting the year.

Based on our real-time US oil production tracking, US oil production is currently tracking around ~13 million b/d, which is below where we were in December 2023. I think this figure still has some model volatility, and the real production is around ~13.3 million b/d.

In Q4 2023, our model showed US oil production averaging 13.296 million b/d. This means that US oil production will be exiting y-o-y flat.
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MY TAKE: At the active rig count, there is little chance that U.S. oil production can grow. "Drill Baby Drill" is not happening unless oil prices go a lot higher.