Natural Gas price forecast for 2025 as of Dec 23
Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2024 11:36 am
This morning (Dec 23) this is the NYMEX Strip for HH natural gas futures prices for 2025 and how they compare to my forecasts.
Strip > My Forecasts by quarter
Q1: $3.33 > $3.25
Q2: $3.05 > $3.00
Q3: $3.41 > $3.75 I believe we will see a Bidding War for NGas in mid-Q3 like we saw in August, 2022 when the price spiked to over $9.00
Q4: $3.83 > $4.00 because Golden Pass Trains 1 & 2 should be coming on-line in early Q4 and gas in storage will be lower than normal.
Where natural gas prices really go is up to the weather in the Eastern U.S.
> The current forecast for January & February is after a brief warm-up between Christmas and New Years Day, the MJO pattern shows a colder than normal January 1-20 with very cold January 5-15 for the Eastern U.S.
> After January 20th temperatures in the Eastern U.S. should be near normal and then (if the MJO goes where Joe Bastardi forecasts it to go) February should be colder than normal most of the month in the Eastern U.S.
Obviously, the weather forecast beyond the next few weeks can change.
Celsius Energy expects EIA to show NGas storage draws of
95 Bcf for week ending Dec 20
136 Bcf for week ending Dec 27
73 Bcf for week ending Jan 3 < brief warm-up forecast above
203 Bcf for week ending Jan 10 < If so, the NYMEX contracts for FEB25 and MAR25 could go over $3.50.
My Wild Ass Guess is that draws for the three weeks ending January 31 will total 625 Bcf, pushing storage near the 5-year average.
As of TODAY, it looks like NGas in storage will go below the 5-year average some time in February. If so, the chance of a Bidding War in Q3 between the utilities and LNG exporters increases.
Key drivers of the U.S. natural gas price:
> Weather in Q1
> LNG exports
> Demand from natural gas fired power plants during the summer.
Strip > My Forecasts by quarter
Q1: $3.33 > $3.25
Q2: $3.05 > $3.00
Q3: $3.41 > $3.75 I believe we will see a Bidding War for NGas in mid-Q3 like we saw in August, 2022 when the price spiked to over $9.00
Q4: $3.83 > $4.00 because Golden Pass Trains 1 & 2 should be coming on-line in early Q4 and gas in storage will be lower than normal.
Where natural gas prices really go is up to the weather in the Eastern U.S.
> The current forecast for January & February is after a brief warm-up between Christmas and New Years Day, the MJO pattern shows a colder than normal January 1-20 with very cold January 5-15 for the Eastern U.S.
> After January 20th temperatures in the Eastern U.S. should be near normal and then (if the MJO goes where Joe Bastardi forecasts it to go) February should be colder than normal most of the month in the Eastern U.S.
Obviously, the weather forecast beyond the next few weeks can change.
Celsius Energy expects EIA to show NGas storage draws of
95 Bcf for week ending Dec 20
136 Bcf for week ending Dec 27
73 Bcf for week ending Jan 3 < brief warm-up forecast above
203 Bcf for week ending Jan 10 < If so, the NYMEX contracts for FEB25 and MAR25 could go over $3.50.
My Wild Ass Guess is that draws for the three weeks ending January 31 will total 625 Bcf, pushing storage near the 5-year average.
As of TODAY, it looks like NGas in storage will go below the 5-year average some time in February. If so, the chance of a Bidding War in Q3 between the utilities and LNG exporters increases.
Key drivers of the U.S. natural gas price:
> Weather in Q1
> LNG exports
> Demand from natural gas fired power plants during the summer.