Keith Kohl's 2nd Prediction for 2025

[dan_s]

#2: Oh, The Geopolitical Mess We’ve Made

In 2025, I believe we’re going to finally see an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine — but be careful what you wish for!

There’s a bit of a catch here. Even though I think we’ll see a resolution, nobody knows what it will look like. The incoming Trump administration has made it clear that they want an end to the situation; which means that one side will end up extremely disappointed.

Will Putin walk away with the piece of the Donbas region that he coveted when the war first broke out? Until we see how talks progress with President Trump in each leaders’ ear, everything is up in the air.

If resolved, however, there’s going to immediately be an impact on global oil and gas markets. For starters, eliminating the price cap on Russian oil would ultimately lift prices around the world. Countries like China, who are more than happy to buy up all that cheap Urals crude, will have to start paying more for it.

The real question we must ask ourselves is whether or not the OPEC+ alliance falters once Russia is free to sell its crude on the open market without threat of sanction: That resolve will be tested next year.