Energy Prospectus

GensiusEnergy.net is now forecasting that 731 Bcf will be drawn from U.S. natural gas storage facilities during the four weeks ending January 17th. That will take the NGas in storage back to the 5-year average two weeks earlier than I was expecting when I adjusted my oil & gas price deck.

This means that if the Eastern U.S. stays colder than normal through the end of January, Henry Hub NGas prices should exceed what I am using in my forecast models for the Q1 and Q2 2025.

Trading Economics:
US natural gas futures dropped 5.7% to $3.71/MMBtu as traders took profits following a surge to a two-year high.
> Despite the dip, prices booked their largest annual gain since 2016, driven by rising exports to meet overseas LNG demand and expectations of higher consumption during winter.
> A colder January forecast and recent spikes in demand had fueled sharp price increases.
> December production rose to 103.3 bcfd, while LNG exports surged to 15.16 bcfd, highlighting strong global demand.
> New export facilities, including Cheniere Energy’s in Texas and Venture Global’s Plaquemines plant, reinforce the US's role as the top LNG exporter, adding momentum to the market heading into the new year.

The big spike in the FEB25 NYMEX contract on Tuesday to $4.15 was caused by a short covering rally. The decline that followed was Longs cashing in for big profits.

My 2025 forecasts are currently based on the following Henry Hub gas prices
$3.25 for Q1
$3.00 for Q2
$3.75 for Q3 < Bidding War for physical delivery between the utilities and LNG exporters (In Aug 2022 the price spiked to over $9.00)
$4.00 for Q4 < Exxon's new Golden Pass LNG export facility should be ramping up.

See NYMEX strip here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html
It confirms that traders agree with my analysis. DEC25 contract currently at $4.40.

Trading Economics:
WTI Oil
WTI crude oil futures climbed to $72.8 per barrel on Thursday, reaching their highest level since November, fueled by optimism about oil demand and a report showing shrinking US crude stockpiles.
> Optimism grew following Chinese President Xi Jinping's New Year address, in which he expressed confidence in China’s economic recovery despite global uncertainties.
> Additionally, China’s manufacturing sector continued its slight expansion for the third consecutive month, further lifting expectations of strong oil demand.
> The price increase was also supported by a report from the American Petroleum Institute, which showed US crude inventories dropped by 1.4 million barrels last week, continuing a trend of declining stockpiles. If confirmed by official data, this would be the sixth consecutive week of inventory reductions.

Propane at $0.78US/gallon
Propane increased 0.10 USD/GAL or 15.54% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Propane reached an all-time high of $1.67 in February of 2014.

MY TAKE: Propane is used by a lot of homes in the Midwest for space heating. The BIG WINTER STORM that is on the way to Missouri will burn up a lot of propane. This is one reason why I have added Antero Resources (AR) back to the Sweet 16 for 2025.